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. 2017 Dec 31;10(4):1724. doi: 10.4022/jafib.1724

Table 1. Atrium-related ECG-derived predictors for new-onset AF.

PAC: premature atrial contraction. FU: follow-up. HR: hazard risk. mo: months. yrs: years. Ref. No.: reference number.

Author Number of FU Annual ECG finding HR (95% CI, P-value)
(Rf. No.) participants time incidence
P-wave duration
Perez [13] 42,751 5.3 yrs 0.45% >120 ms 1.6 (1.3-1.8, P<0.0001)
per 20 ms 1.1 4 (1.02-1.27, P=0.022)
Soliman[14] 15,429 6.97 yrs 0.11% >120 ms 1.94 (1.66-2.28) Model 1
1.79 (1.51-2.14) Model 2
Upper 5% 5.23 (3.33-8.22) Model 1
4.07 (2.55 - 6.51) Model 2
Magnani[15] 1,550 15.8 yrs 1.46% Upper 5% 2.51 (1.13-5.57)
per 1 SD 1.1 (0.90-1.47, P=0.27)
Nielsen[28] 285,933 6.7 yrs 0.49% >89 ms 1.60 (1.41−1.81 P<0.001)
100-105 ms 1.00
112-119 ms 1.22
120-129 ms 1.50
≥130 2.06
P-wave dispersion
Perez [13] - - - >80 ms 1.95 (1.7-2.3, P<0.0001)
SD of P duration >35 1.7 (1.3-2.1, P<0.0001)
P-morphology
Soliman[14] - - - 95th% of PTFV1 1.23 (1.04-1.46)
Magnani[16] - - - PTFV1 >0.04 V•s 1.56 (1.24-2.00)
Enriquez[35] 122 30 mo 46.7% P duration ≥120 ms 2.9 (1.02-8.6, P<0.04)
Biphasic P in II,I II, aVF
Abn. P axis
Perez [13] - - - >95th% 1.21 (0.69-2.12, P<0.0001)
>74° and <24° 1.52 (1.05-2.21, P>0.0001
PAC/runs
Watanabe [51] 63,368 10 yrs 0.14% Standard ECG, ≥1/10 sec 2.89 (1.80-3.35)
Perez [13] - - - Presence 2.1 (1.6-2.7, P<0.0001)
Murakoshi [52] 63,197 14 yrs 0.105% Presence 4.87 (6.61-6.57) for men
3.87 (2.69-5.57) for women
Acharya[56] 1,357 7.5 yrs 11.4% ≥100/day 2.97 (1.85-4.80)
couplets ≥50/day 3.11
bigeminy 3.67
3 PACs run ≥20 /day 2.94
runs (≥10 beats/run) 1.73
PR interval
Perez [13] - - - >200 ms 1.3 (1.1-1.6, P=0.003)
Nielsen[69] 288,181 6.7 yrs 3.8% ≥196 ms men 1.30 (1.17-1.44)
≥204 ms women 1.18 (1.06-1.530)
<129 ms men 1.09 (0.92-1.29) ‡
<121 ms women 1. 32 (1.12-1.56)
Alonso[25] 262,288 5 yrs 6.8% per 30 ms 1.03 (0.85-1.26, <0.0001)
to 1.22 (1.01-1.42, 0.027)
Macfarlane[68] 5,680 3.2 yrs 9.4% per 30 ms 1.19 (1.09-1.30, P<0.0001)