Figure 3.

Example simulated trends in HIV virulence (mean SPVL) for scenarios of 40, 60, 80, and 100 percent coverage (individual probability of treatment) and ART initiation at 3 years elapsed after infection, versus the counterfactual simulation with no ART. Shown are LOESS regression lines for ten random replicates for each ART coverage scenario (thin lines), and the mean of these replicates (thick lines). Initial mean SPVL was 4.5 log₁₀ copies/ml. ART coverage lines start at year 22, corresponding to a simulation starting at year 1990 with ART rollout at year 2012.