Table 3.
Impact of HIV virulence evolution given in terms of: mean SPVL; infectiousness (mean annual transmission rate); and years until specific CD4+ T-cell counts.
| Mean SPVL | Mean annual transmission rate | Mean years | Mean years | Mean years | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| To CD4 <500 | To CD4 <350 | To CD4 <200 | |||
| No ART | 4.72 | 0.76 | 2.4 | 4.47 | 7.03 |
| A. With ART; CD4<350 | 4.7 | 0.75 | 2.3 | 4.27 | 6.86 |
| B. With ART; 3 years after infection | 4.97 | 0.82 | 2.05 | 3.91 | 6.25 |
| C. With ART; 4 years after infection | 4.9 | 0.81 | 2.18 | 4.14 | 6.73 |
The baseline comparison for simulated epidemics without ART is shown. ART scenarios with 80 percent coverage are shown for three eligibility types: (A) ART eligibility at CD4 <350 cells/μl; (B) ART eligibility at 3 years elapsed after infection; and (C) ART eligibility at 4 years elapsed after infection. Values are means for all new infections between 2045 and 2050 (33–38 years after ART, the last 5 years of 60-year epidemic runs), for ten replicates each, for the SPVL (viral load at the end of primary infection).