Table II.

Logistic regression analysis of risk factors for post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP)

	OR (95%CI)	P value
Univariate analysis
Previous PEP (presence vs. absence)	11.8 (7.24–19.5)	<0.0001
Previous acute pancreatitis (presence vs. absence)	4.7 (2.55–8.49)	<0.0001
Suspected SOD (presence vs. absence)	5.6 (2.23–13.1)	0.0006
Cannulation time (< 15 min vs. ≥ 15 min)	2.0 (1.34–2.98)	0.0009
Total procedure time (< 30 min vs. ≥ 30 min)	1.7 (1.13–2.73)	0.01
Pancreatic duct injection (performed vs. not performed)	1.9 (1.18–3.06)	0.006
Pancreatic duct brush cytology (performed vs. not performed)	2.3 (1.31–3.94)	0.005
Multivariate analysis*
Previous PEP (presence vs. absence)	12.0 (7.10–20.5)	<0.0001
Previous acute pancreatitis (presence vs. absence)	5.2 (2.54–10.2)	<0.0001
Suspected SOD (presence vs. absence)	8.7 (3.17–22.5)	<0.0001
Cannulation time (< 15 min vs. ≥ 15 min)	1.9 (1.20–3.02)	0.006
Total procedure time (< 30 min vs. ≥ 30 min)	1.7 (1.03–2.86)	0.04
Pancreatic duct brush cytology (performed vs. not performed)	2.7 (1.40–4.92)	0.004
EPS (not performed vs. performed)	2.4 (1.14–5.67)	0.02

^*The odds ratio was adjusted for age, sex, previous PEP, previous acute pancreatitis, suspected SOD, cannulation time, total procedure time, pancreatic duct injection, EST, precut sphincterotomy, pancreatic duct IDUS, bile duct IDUS, pancreatic duct aspiration cytology, bile duct aspiration cytology, pancreatic duct brush cytology, bile duct brush cytology, and EPS. Backward stepwise elimination with a threshold of P = 0.05 was used to select variables for the final models.

EPS: endoscopic pancreatic stenting; ERCP: endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography; EST: endoscopic sphincterotomy; IDUS: intraductal ultrasonography; SOD: sphincter of Oddi dysfunction. CI, confidence interval; OR, odds ratio.