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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2018 Dec 1.
Published in final edited form as: Health Care Manag Sci. 2017 Aug 31:10.1007/s10729-017-9416-4. doi: 10.1007/s10729-017-9416-4

Appendix Table 1.

Summary of notation

Value Description
t Time epochs, t = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, T = 6
st Patient health state at time t. States are: s1 = Healthy on treatment (H), s2 = DS TB on treatment (DS), s3 = DR TB on treatment (DR), s4 = healthy defaulted (dH), s5 = DS TB defaulted (dDS), s6 = DR TB defaulted (dDR), s7 = dead. States 4, 5, 6, and 7 are directly observable. Can be in the set S = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
at Action at time t. Can be one of DST (administer DST to the patient), wait and see (continue on first-line treatment with an SS test), wait and not see (continue on first-line treatment without an SS test).
δ Discount factor
ft 7 × 7 transition matrix describing treatment dynamics. Element ft,ij provides probability of being in state j at time t + 1 if in state i at time t. The terms d, c, and ν represent probabilities of default, cure, and death, respectively.
zt Observations at time t. Can be one of {SS+, SS−, default, death} if at = wait, and {No default or death, default, death} if at = DST.
Beliefs and Belief Updates
Sens SS test sensitivity
Spec SS test specificity
βt Belief state at time t. A vector of probability values over each of the health states at time t.
M¯zt(ftβt)
Function that updates the belief given observation zt, dynamics ft, and prior belief βt: βt=M¯zt(ftβt)
N+(x) 1(1spec)x(1)+(sens)(x(2)+x(3)). Used in the belief update: Mzt=+(x)=N+(x)M+x
M+ [(1spec)0000000(sens)0000000(sens)00000000000000000000000000000000]. Used in the belief update: Mzt=+(x)=N+(x)M+x
N(x) 1(spec)x(1)+(1sens)(x(2)+x(3)). Used in the belief update: Mzt=(x)=N(x)Mx
M [(spec)0000000(1sens)0000000(1sens)00000000000000000000000000000000]. Used in the belief update: Mzt=(x)=N(x)Mx
P(x) 1x(4)+(x(5)+x(6)). Used in the belief update: Mzt=default(x)=P(x)Qx
Q [0000000000000000000000001000000010000000100000000]. Used in the belief update: Mzt=default(x)=P(x)Qx
Rewards
rwait,a Stage reward.
rDST Terminal rewards if at = DST. A 1 × 7 vector of net monetary benefits (NMB):
[NMBDST,H NMBDST,DS NMBDST,DR NMBdH NMBdDS NMBdDS NMBdead].
r∼DST Terminal reward if patient never undergoes DST. A 1 × 7 vector of net monetary benefits (NMB):
[NMB~DST,H NMB~DST,DS NMB~DST,DR NMBdH NMBdDS NMBdDS NMBdead]