Appendix Table 1.
Summary of notation
| Value | Description | |
|---|---|---|
| t | Time epochs, t = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, T = 6 | |
| st | Patient health state at time t. States are: s1 = Healthy on treatment (H), s2 = DS TB on treatment (DS), s3 = DR TB on treatment (DR), s4 = healthy defaulted (dH), s5 = DS TB defaulted (dDS), s6 = DR TB defaulted (dDR), s7 = dead. States 4, 5, 6, and 7 are directly observable. Can be in the set S = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 | |
| at | Action at time t. Can be one of DST (administer DST to the patient), wait and see (continue on first-line treatment with an SS test), wait and not see (continue on first-line treatment without an SS test). | |
| δ | Discount factor | |
| ft | 7 × 7 transition matrix describing treatment dynamics. Element ft,ij provides probability of being in state j at time t + 1 if in state i at time t. The terms d, c, and ν represent probabilities of default, cure, and death, respectively. | |
| zt | Observations at time t. Can be one of {SS+, SS−, default, death} if at = wait, and {No default or death, default, death} if at = DST. | |
| Beliefs and Belief Updates | ||
| Sens | SS test sensitivity | |
| Spec | SS test specificity | |
| βt | Belief state at time t. A vector of probability values over each of the health states at time t. | |
|
|
Function that updates the belief given observation zt, dynamics ft, and prior belief βt: | |
| N+(x) | . Used in the belief update: | |
| M+ | . Used in the belief update: | |
| N−(x) | . Used in the belief update: | |
| M− | . Used in the belief update: | |
| P(x) | . Used in the belief update: | |
| Q | . Used in the belief update: | |
| Rewards | ||
| rwait,a | Stage reward. | |
| rDST | Terminal rewards if at = DST. A 1 × 7 vector of net monetary benefits (NMB): | |
| [NMBDST,H NMBDST,DS NMBDST,DR NMBdH NMBdDS NMBdDS NMBdead]. | ||
| r∼DST | Terminal reward if patient never undergoes DST. A 1 × 7 vector of net monetary benefits (NMB): | |
| [NMB~DST,H NMB~DST,DS NMB~DST,DR NMBdH NMBdDS NMBdDS NMBdead] | ||