Fig. 3.

Opportunity costs and breakeven carbon prices needed to protect forests from logging and conversion to rubber. Opportunity costs a–d include forgone profits from logging and rubber, or logging alone, offset by resin revenue except where resin trees (all class II) are logged out (in the “Luxury, I, II logged” and “All trees logged” scenarios). Breakeven carbon prices e–h are the prices needed to offset combined opportunity costs and carbon finance scheme setup (transaction) and implementation costs. Costs are shown separately for dense and open forests. Time-averaged post-deforestation land-use carbon stocks (taCs) partially offset forest carbon losses. Scenarios (of permitted selective logging, with and without potential for conversion to rubber) follow Fig. 1; boxplot format as Fig. 2. Grey lines on breakeven carbon price panels e–h represent indicative global carbon prices: dotted = $5 per tCO₂ (voluntary market forest carbon sales and non-market carbon fund prices), short dash = $13 per tCO₂ (compliance market prices) and long dash = $36 per tCO₂ (social cost of carbon, not shown on “Logging forgone” plots; see Supplementary Table 4). Outliers (>1.5× the interquartile range) are not displayed to improve the clarity of the figure; the value shown above each box-whisker gives the n outliers excluded out of 10,000 modelled results