Table 3.

Ten‐year cumulative probability of lung cancer occurrence (expressed in %) in non‐smokers and current smokers according to gender, age, and intensity of smoking (expressed in pack‐years) with consideration of the competing risk of death from other causes

	Men; age, y				Women; age, y
Smoking intensity, pack‐yearsa	40b	50	60	70	40	50	60	70
Non‐smokers	0.06 (0.04‐0.09)c	0.23 (0.18‐0.29)	0.64 (0.52‐0.79)	1.35 (1.06‐1.71)	0.10 (0.07‐0.15)	0.26 (0.21‐0.31)	0.50 (0.44‐0.58)	0.75 (0.60‐0.94)
≤15 PY	0.14 (0.09‐0.22)	0.51 (0.36‐0.74)	1.41 (0.99‐2.03)	2.80 (1.92‐4.09)	0.23 (0.14‐0.37)	0.58 (0.39‐0.86)	1.12 (0.75‐1.66)	1.61 (1.04‐2.49)
>15 PY and ≤30 PY	0.24 (0.17‐0.33)	0.84 (0.69‐1.01)	2.29 (1.90‐2.78)	4.53 (3.63‐5.64)	0.38 (0.25‐0.56)	0.94 (0.71‐1.25)	1.82 (1.39‐2.38)	2.62 (1.90‐3.60)
>30 PY and ≤45 PY	0.34 (0.25‐0.48)	1.22 (1.05‐1.43)	3.34 (2.91‐3.84)	6.55 (5.44‐7.88)	0.55 (0.37‐0.82)	1.37 (1.06‐1.79)	2.65 (2.07‐3.39)	3.81 (2.80‐5.17)
>45 PY and ≤60 PY	0.40 (0.29‐0.57)	1.44 (1.19‐1.73)	3.91 (3.32‐4.61)	7.64 (6.35‐9.18)	0.65 (0.43‐0.97)	1.61 (1.22‐2.13)	3.10 (2.39‐4.03)	4.45 (3.26‐6.07)
>60 PY and ≤75 PY	0.56 (0.39‐0.81)	2.00 (1.61‐2.50)	5.43 (4.45‐6.62)	10.51 (8.37‐13.15)	0.91 (0.59‐1.39)	2.25 (1.66‐3.04)	4.32 (3.25‐5.73)	6.17 (4.40‐8.61)
>75 PY	0.60 (0.41‐0.88)	2.13 (1.67‐2.71)	5.77 (4.63‐7.17)	11.14 (8.74‐14.15)	0.96 (0.62‐1.49)	2.39 (1.74‐3.28)	4.59 (3.41‐6.17)	6.55 (4.62‐9.25)

^aFor smokers, predictions are given for an age at smoking initiation of 20 y.

^bPredictions are given for the exact ages indicated.

^cConfidence intervals were estimated by the delta method.