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. 2018 Feb 21;18(2):1–160.

Table 13:

Annual Transition Probabilities for the Type 1 Diabetes Markov Model

Parameter Mean Value 95% CI Source
First Year Onward
No complications to neuropathy 0.0235 0.0218–0.0252 DCCT, 201474
Severe hypoglycemic event (acute event from any health state) 0.0982 0.0909–0.1036 DCCT, 200976
Second Year Onward
Retinopathy to blindness 0.0064 0.0062–0.0066 Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study Research Group, 199178
Neuropathy to lower-extremity amputation 0.1200 0.1104–0.1296 Jonasson et al, 200879
Nephropathy to end-stage renal disease 0.072 0.006–0.008 McQueen et al, 201151 Eastman et al, 199770
Neuropathy to CVDa 0.0200 0.0188–0.0212 Klein et al, 200466
Neuropathy to nephropathy 0.097 0.0943–0.0997 Wu et al, 199880
Retinopathy to CVDa 0.0155 0.0146–0.0164 Klein et al, 200466
Nephropathy to CVDa 0.0224 0.0210–0.0238 Klein et al, 200466

Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; CVD, cardiovascular disease; DCCT, Diabetes Control and Complications Trial.

a

Transition probability of having CVD concomitant with retinopathy, nephropathy, or neuropathy.