Table 13:
Annual Transition Probabilities for the Type 1 Diabetes Markov Model
| Parameter | Mean Value | 95% CI | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Year Onward | |||
| No complications to neuropathy | 0.0235 | 0.0218–0.0252 | DCCT, 201474 |
| Severe hypoglycemic event (acute event from any health state) | 0.0982 | 0.0909–0.1036 | DCCT, 200976 |
| Second Year Onward | |||
| Retinopathy to blindness | 0.0064 | 0.0062–0.0066 | Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study Research Group, 199178 |
| Neuropathy to lower-extremity amputation | 0.1200 | 0.1104–0.1296 | Jonasson et al, 200879 |
| Nephropathy to end-stage renal disease | 0.072 | 0.006–0.008 | McQueen et al, 201151 Eastman et al, 199770 |
| Neuropathy to CVDa | 0.0200 | 0.0188–0.0212 | Klein et al, 200466 |
| Neuropathy to nephropathy | 0.097 | 0.0943–0.0997 | Wu et al, 199880 |
| Retinopathy to CVDa | 0.0155 | 0.0146–0.0164 | Klein et al, 200466 |
| Nephropathy to CVDa | 0.0224 | 0.0210–0.0238 | Klein et al, 200466 |
Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; CVD, cardiovascular disease; DCCT, Diabetes Control and Complications Trial.
a
Transition probability of having CVD concomitant with retinopathy, nephropathy, or neuropathy.