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. 2018 Feb 21;18(2):1–160.

Table 19:

Sensitivity Analyses for Continuous Glucose Monitoring Model

Parameters Mean Value Plausible Range Source
Minimum Maximum
Discount rates, % 1.5 0 5.0 Paulden et al75
Annual Transition Probabilities
First year onward
 No complications to retinopathy (exponential) 0.0764 0.0461 0.0829 DCCT, 2009,76 DCCT, 201474
 No complications to nephropathy (exponential) 0.0094 0.0008 0.0526 DCCT, 200976
 No complications to neuropathy 0.0235 0.0218 0.0252 DCCT, 200976
 No complications to CVD (exponential) 0.0045 0.0310 0.0084 Hoerger et al, 2004,81 DCCT, 2005101
 No complications to severe hypoglycemic event 0.0982 0.0526 0.1513 DCCT, 200976
Second year onward
 Retinopathy to blindness 0.0064 0.0010 0.1010 Hoerger et al, 2004,81 McQueen et al, 201151
 Neuropathy to lower-extremity amputation 0.1200 0.0620 0.1690 Hoerger et al, 2004,81 McQueen et al, 201151
 Nephropathy to end-stage renal disease 0.072 0.0041 0.096 Hoerger et al, 2004,81 McQueen et al, 201151
 Neuropathy to CVD 0.0200 0.0160 0.0440 Hoerger et al, 2004,81 McQueen et al, 201151
 Neuropathy to nephropathy 0.0970 0.0550 0.1490 Wu et al, 199880
 Retinopathy to CVD 0.0155 0.0100 0.0430 Klein et al, 2004,66 McQueen et al, 201151
 Nephropathy to CVD 0.0224 0.0130 0.0340 Klein et al, 2004,66 McQueen et al, 201151
Utilities
No complications 0.814 0.710 0.918 Clarke et al, 2002,88 Currie et al, 200690
Nephropathy 0.575 0.545 0.606 Sullivan et al, 200692
Neuropathy 0.624 0.573 0.632 McQueen et al, 2011,51 Palmer et al, 200465
Retinopathy 0.612 0.581 0.643 McQueen et al, 2011,51 Sullivan et al, 200692
CVD 0.685 0.513 0.742 Clarke et al, 2002,88 and Palmer et al, 200465
Severe hypoglycemia 0.66 0.544 0.764 Vexiau et al, 2008,102 Marrett et al, 2009,103 Currie et al, 200690
Blindness 0.569 0.540 0.734 Clarke et al, 2002,88 and Palmer et al, 200465
Lower-extremity amputation 0.534 0.425 0.644 Clarke et al, 2002,88 Sullivan et al, 200692
End-stage renal disease 0.49 0.45 0.53 Tengs and Wallace, 200091
Cost, First Year, 2017 Canadian Dollars
No complications 2,262 1,667 2,262 McQueen et al, 2015,97 O'Reilly et al, 200796
Nephropathy 80 70 90 McQueen et al, 2015,97 O'Brien et al 2003,95 assumption
Neuropathy 192 150 213 O'Brien et al, 2003,95 assumption
Retinopathy 492 400 642 McQueen et al, 2015,97 O'Brien et al 2003,95 assumption
CVD 18,682 7,471 24,170 OCCI, O'Brien et al, 200395
Severe hypoglycemia 3,775 1,500 4,000 Assumption, OCCI
Blindness 3,483 2,738 5,000 McQueen et al, 2015,97 O'Brien et al, 2003,95 assumption
Lower-extremity amputation 43,984 31,884 50,000 McQueen et al, 2015,97 O'Brien et al 2003,95 assumption
End-stage renal disease 28,221 25,841 81,769 McQueen et al, 2015,97 O'Brien et al 200395
Relative Risk From Lowering A1C by 1%
Nephropathy 0.038 0.032 0.043 DCCT, 2009,76 DCCT, 201474
Neuropathy 0.025 0.020 0.030 DCCT, 2009,76 DCCT, 201474
Retinopathy 0.029 0.023 0.034 DCCT, 2009,76 DCCT, 201474
CVD 0.040 0.035 0.045 DCCT, 2009,76 DCCT, 201474
Severe hypoglycemia 0.061 0.055 0.066 DCCT, 2009,76 DCCT, 201474

Abbreviations: A1C, glycated hemoglobin; CVD, cardiovascular disease; DCCT, Diabetes Control and Complications Trial; OCCI, Ontario Case Costing Initiative.