Figure 4.

Simulated change in yields in irrigated sites in the “unchanged duration” scenario for RCP scenarios 2.6 (blue) and 8.5 (red). The top pane (a) shows on the x‐axis future spikelet fertility as affected by heat (SFHEAT, 0–1), which is 1 minus the spikelet sterility. In the bottom pane (b) the black line shows part of the trapezoid function of the temperature function with which the maximum assimilation rate AMAX is multiplied (Figure 3). AMAX is optimal (1, here scaled to 0%) from 20 to 37°C. From 37°C to 43°C, the temperature multiplier for AMAX drops to 0 (here −100%). Each dot represents a simulation for a site (53 irrigated sites Africa) in a specific season (main season or off season) and year (1998–2002)