Table 5.
Simulated changes in rice yield averaged by country and by environment
| Africa | Country | RCP8.5, changes 2000 to 2070 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shorter duration | Unchanged duration | ||||||||
| Irrigated | Rainfed | Irrigated | Rainfed | ||||||
| Main season (%) | Off season (%) | Low‐land (%) | Up‐land (%) | Main season (%) | Off season (%) | Low‐land (%) | Up‐land (%) | ||
| WEST | Benin | −13 | −59 | −22 | −25 | +13 | −41 | +13 | +8 |
| Burkina Faso | −23 | −48 | −34 | −32 | +7 | −32 | +3 | +10 | |
| Cote D'Ivoire | −13 | −13 | −29 | +17 | +11 | +7 | |||
| Cameroon | −4 | −52 | +14 | −31 | |||||
| Ghana | −20 | −36 | −18 | −35 | +13 | −16 | +11 | +2 | |
| Gambia | −25 | −30 | +28 | +85 | +6 | −5 | +17 | +25 | |
| Mali | −33 | −80 | −10 | −17 | −7 | −70 | +2 | +1 | |
| Mauritania | +7 | −14 | +21 | +2 | |||||
| Niger | −29 | −45 | −10 | −47 | |||||
| Nigeria | −30 | −42 | −26 | −28 | +6 | −18 | +10 | +2 | |
| Senegal | 4 | −4 | +18 | +17 | |||||
| WEST | Total | −20 | −42 | −19 | −25 | +7 | −26 | +9 | +5 |
| NORTH | Egypt | −19 | +6 | ||||||
| EAST | Ethiopia | −39 | −7 | +15 | +30 | ||||
| Kenya | −34 | −19 | +28 | +20 | |||||
| Madagascar | −13 | −15 | −16 | −26 | +21 | +29 | +15 | +8 | |
| Rwanda | −54 | −38 | +32 | +18 | |||||
| Tanzania | −37 | −17 | −23 | −29 | +31 | +31 | −2 | −13 | |
| Uganda | −43 | −44 | +2 | +4 | |||||
| Zambia | −55 | −51 | +14 | −2 | |||||
| EAST | Total | −21 | −17 | −27 | −31 | +23 | +28 | +10 | +6 |
| Africa | Total | −20 | −31 | −23 | −28 | +14 | −2 | +10 | +6 |
Empty spaces mean no simulations were conducted, which in most cases means the combination is absent. For example in Egypt almost all rice is irrigated rice in the main season, so no values for rainfed rice or for irrigated rice in the “off” season are shown. Similar tables for the all four scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) are presented in the Tables S3–S6.