Table 1.
Key parameter values used in the estimates, and accompanying range used in the sensitivity analysis
Parameter | Symbol | Default value |
Range used in sensitivity analysis |
Reference(s) |
---|---|---|---|---|
HSV-2 | ||||
Average number of days between HSV-2 infection and the development of protective IgG antibodies (=transmission window) | xHSV-2 | 21 days | -- | 19,20 |
Risk of neonatal infection from a prevalent maternal HSV-2 infection | rprev_HSV-2 | 0·02% | 0·0045% and 0·064% | 7 |
Risk of neonatal infection from an incident maternal HSV-2 infection which occurs near labour and before antibodies have developed | rincid_HSV-2 | 7.7% | 2·7% and 15·4% | 7,17 |
HSV-1 | ||||
Average number of days between HSV-1 infection and the development of protective IgG antibodies (=transmission window) | xHSV-1 | 25 days | -- | 20 |
Risk of neonatal infection from a prevalent maternal HSV-1 infection (any HSV-1infection) | rprev_HSV-1 | 0·0063% | 0·00077% and 0·023% | 7 and Stacy Selke, personal communication |
Risk of neonatal infection from an incident maternal HSV-1 infection (any HSV-1 infection) which occurs near labour and before antibodies have developed | rincid_HSV-1 | 11% | 3·1% and 26·1% | 7 and Amalia Magaret, personal communication, based on data described in18 |
For full details see Supplementary appendix.