. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2018 Mar 5.

Published in final edited form as: Lancet Glob Health. 2017 Jan 31;5(3):e300–e309. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(16)30362-X

Table 4.

Sensitivity analysis for estimates of annual neonatal herpes cases during 2010–2015, varying neonatal herpes transmission risk (presented as lowest estimate; highest estimate)

Any neonatal herpes
Region	Maternal age group (years)							Total
Region	15–19	20–24	25–29	30–34	35–39	40–44	45–49	Total
Americas	130; 1193	223; 2195	204; 2135	136; 1512	65; 759	16; 200	2; 28	777; 8022
Africa	291; 2066	433; 3645	336; 3264	208; 2252	107; 1263	38; 469	13; 167	1425; 13126
Eastern Mediterranean	43; 360	80; 784	63; 736	35; 465	16; 233	5; 78	1; 19	243; 2674
Europe	21; 195	65; 657	75; 836	53; 646	22; 285	4; 58	0; 4	241; 2680
South-East Asia	32; 231	135; 1070	113; 971	58; 526	25; 243	8; 78	3; 26	374; 3146
Western Pacific	38; 321	326; 2863	243; 2250	89; 874	33; 334	10; 107	2; 17	741; 6767
Global total	552; 4365	1225; 11213	1000; 10193	564; 6275	262; 3117	79; 991	20; 262	3703; 36415
Neonatal herpes due to a maternal HSV-1 infection
Region	Maternal age group (years)							Total
Region	15–19	20–24	25–29	30–34	35–39	40–44	45–49	Total
Americas	90; 918	141; 1554	116; 1388	70; 904	30; 418	7; 102	1; 14	454; 5928
Africa	3; 26	1; 11	0; 7	0; 4	0; 3	0; 1	0; 0	4; 53
Eastern Mediterranean	19; 187	26; 308	15; 229	6; 125	2; 59	1; 19	0; 5	69; 932
Europe	16; 157	41; 466	38; 512	21; 346	7; 136	1; 25	0; 2	124; 1644
South-East Asia	5; 44	4; 58	1; 27	0; 11	0; 5	0; 1	0; 0	11; 146
Western Pacific	25; 251	166; 1896	91; 1238	24; 405	7; 135	2; 39	0; 6	315; 3972
Global total	157; 1584	379; 4293	262; 3401	122; 1796	46; 756	10; 188	1; 26	977; 12045
Neonatal herpes due to a maternal HSV-2 infection
Region	Maternal age group (years)							Total
Region	15–19	20–24	25–29	30–34	35––39	40–44	45–49	Total
Americas	40; 275	82; 641	88; 747	67; 608	35; 341	10; 98	1; 15	323; 2724
Africa	289; 2040	432; 3633	336; 3257	207; 2248	107; 1260	38; 468	13; 166	1421; 13073
Eastern Mediterranean	24; 173	54; 476	48; 508	29; 339	14; 174	4; 59	1; 14	173; 1742
Europe	5; 37	24; 191	37; 324	32; 301	15; 148	3; 32	0; 2	116; 1036
South-East Asia	27; 187	131; 1012	112; 944	57; 514	25; 239	8; 77	3; 26	363; 2999
Western Pacific	10; 70	123; 967	118; 1012	51; 468	20; 199	7; 68	1; 11	329; 2795
Global total	395; 2781	846; 6920	738; 6792	442; 4479	216; 2361	69; 802	19; 235	2726; 24370

Estimates are presented by HSV type and maternal age group. Totals may be slightly different due to rounding. Numbers of cases are given in integers. It should be noted that all numbers are model estimates. Measurement resolution should not be interpreted as indicative of precision.