Table 5.
Sensitivity analysis for estimates of annual neonatal herpes incidence per 100,000 births during 2010–2015, varying neonatal herpes transmission risk (presented as lowest estimate-highest estimate)
| Any neonatal herpes | ||||||||
| Region | Maternal age group (years) | Overall rate per 100,000 births | ||||||
| 15–19 | 20–24 | 25–29 | 30–34 | 35–39 | 40–44 | 45–49 | ||
| Americas | 5·9–54·4 | 5·3–52·2 | 4·9–50·9 | 4·5–50·3 | 4·3–50·2 | 4·1–50·5 | 4·0–51·1 | 5·0–51·6 |
| Africa | 5·7–40·7 | 4·6–38·9 | 3·9–37·9 | 3·4–37·3 | 3·1–36·9 | 2·9–36·7 | 2·8–36·5 | 4·2–38·3 |
| Eastern Mediterranean | 3·5–29·5 | 2·0–20·1 | 1·4–16·2 | 1·1–14·5 | 0·9–13·8 | 0·9–13·5 | 0·8–13·3 | 1·6–17·5 |
| Europe | 4·0–36·8 | 2·8–27·9 | 2·1–23·4 | 1·7–21·3 | 1·6–20·4 | 1·5–20·1 | 1·4–20·2 | 2·1–23·9 |
| South-East Asia | 1·0–7·1 | 1·0–7·6 | 1·0–8·8 | 1·1–10·1 | 1·2–11·4 | 1·3–12·6 | 1·3–13·9 | 1·0–8·6 |
| Western Pacific | 4·5–37·6 | 3·3–28·7 | 2·7–24·7 | 2·4–23·1 | 2·2–22·7 | 2·2–23·0 | 2·1–23·5 | 2·9–26·3 |
| Global total | 4·2–33·3 | 2·8–25·5 | 2·4–24·8 | 2·3–25·8 | 2·3–26·8 | 2·2–27·3 | 2·2–27·9 | 2·7–26·3 |
| Neonatal herpes due to a maternal HSV-1 infection | ||||||||
| Region | Maternal age group (years) | Overall rate per 100,000 births | ||||||
| 15–19 | 20–24 | 25–29 | 30–34 | 35–39 | 40–44 | 45–49 | ||
| Americas | 4·1–41·9 | 3·4–37·0 | 2·8–33·1 | 2·3–30·1 | 2·0–27·7 | 1·7–25·8 | 1·5–24·3 | 2·9–34·1 |
| Africa | 0·06–0·5 | 0·01–0·1 | 0·00–0·08 | 0·00–0·07 | 0·00–0·07 | 0·00–0·07 | 0·00–0·07 | 0·01–0·2 |
| Eastern Mediterranean | 1·6–15·3 | 0·7–7·9 | 0·3–5·0 | 0·2–3·9 | 0·1–3·5 | 0·1–3·3 | 0·1–3·3 | 0·5–6·1 |
| Europe | 3·0–29·8 | 1·7–19·8 | 1·1–14·3 | 0·7–11·4 | 0·5–9·8 | 0·4–8·9 | 0·3–8·4 | 1·1–14·7 |
| South-East Asia | 0·1–1·4 | 0·03–0·4 | 0·01–0·2 | 0·01–0·2 | 0·01–0·2 | 0·01–0·2 | 0·01–0·2 | 0·03–0·4 |
| Western Pacific | 2·9–29·4 | 1·7–19·0 | 1·0–13·6 | 0·6–10·7 | 0·5–9·2 | 0·4–8·4 | 0·3–8·0 | 1·2–15·4 |
| Global total | 1·2–12·1 | 0·9–9·8 | 0·6–8·3 | 0·5–7·4 | 0·4–6·5 | 0·3–5·2 | 0·1–2·8 | 0·7–8·7 |
| Neonatal herpes due to a maternal HSV-2 infection | ||||||||
| Region | Maternal age group (years) | Overall rate per 100,000 births | ||||||
| 15–19 | 20–24 | 25–29 | 30–34 | 35–39 | 40–44 | 45–49 | ||
| Americas | 1·8–12·5 | 2·0–15·2 | 2·1–17·8 | 2·2–20·2 | 2·3–22·5 | 2·5–24·7 | 2·6–26·8 | 2·2–17·5 |
| Africa | 5·7–40·2 | 4·6–38·8 | 3·9–37·9 | 3·4–37·2 | 3·1–36·8 | 2·9–36·6 | 2·8–36·4 | 4·1–38·2 |
| Eastern Mediterranean | 2·0–14·1 | 1·4–12·2 | 1·1–11·1 | 0·9–10·6 | 0·8–10·3 | 0·8–10·2 | 0·7–10·1 | 1·1–11·4 |
| Europe | 1·0–7·0 | 1·0–8·1 | 1·0–9·1 | 1·0–9·9 | 1·1–10·6 | 1·1–11·3 | 1·1–11·8 | 1·0–9·3 |
| South-East Asia | 0·8–5·8 | 0·9–7·2 | 1·0–8·5 | 1·1–9·9 | 1·2–11·2 | 1·3–12·4 | 1·3–13·7 | 1·0–8·2 |
| Western Pacific | 1·2–8·2 | 1·2–9·7 | 1·3–11·1 | 1·3–12·4 | 1·4–13·5 | 1·4–14·6 | 1·4–15·5 | 1·3–10·9 |
| Global total | 3·0–21·2 | 1·9–15·8 | 1·8–16·5 | 1·8–18·4 | 1·9–20·3 | 1·9–22·1 | 2·0–25·1 | 2·0; 17·6 |
Estimates are presented by HSV type and maternal age group. Rates are given to 1 decimal place, or 2 decimal places for very low rates, in order to demonstrate trends. It should be noted that all rates are model estimates. Measurement resolution should not be interpreted as indicative of precision.