Table 2.
C-indices for all-cause mortality according to the ABC-death score (including alternative biomarkers) compared with the CHA2DS2-VASc in the full cohorts and in subgroups
| Full cohort | No prior stroke/TIA | No prior HF | TTR < 65% | NOACa | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derivation cohort, Events/N | 1047/14 611 | 816/11 858 | 575/10 080 | 686/8346 | 506/7319 |
| ABC-death (cTnT) | 0.74 (0.73, 0.76) | 0.75 (0.73, 0.76) | 0.73 (0.71, 0.75) | 0.74 (0.72, 0.77) | 0.75 (0.72, 0.77) |
| ABC-death (cTnI) | 0.75 (0.73, 0.76) | 0.75 (0.73, 0.77) | 0.74 (0.72, 0.76) | 0.74 (0.71, 0.76) | 0.75 (0.73, 0.77) |
| All clinical information | 0.68 (0.66, 0.70) | 0.68 (0.66, 0.70) | 0.67 (0.64, 0.69) | 0.69 (0.66, 0.71] | 0.67 (0.65, 0.70) |
| CHA2DS2-VASc | 0.59 (0.57, 0.61) | 0.59 (0.57, 0.61) | 0.59 (0.57, 0.62) | 0.57 (0.54, 0.60) | 0.59 (0.57, 0.62) |
| Validation cohort, Events/N | 594/8548 | 474/6893 | 324/6095 | 101/1119 | 391/5697 |
| ABC-death (cTnT) | 0.74 (0.72, 0.76) | 0.74 (0.72, 0.76) | 0.72 (0.69, 0.75) | 0.73 (0.68, 0.78) | 0.75 (0.73, 0.78) |
| ABC-death (cTnI) | 0.73 (0.71, 0.75) | 0.73 (0.70, 0.75) | 0.70 (0.67, 0.73) | 0.70 (0.65, 0.76) | 0.74 (0.72, 0.77) |
| All clinical information | 0.67 (0.65, 0.69) | 0.67 (0.65, 0.69) | 0.65 (0.62, 0.68) | 0.61 (0.56, 0.67) | 0.69 (0.67, 0.72) |
| CHA2DS2-VASc | 0.58 (0.56, 0.61) | 0.59 (0.56, 0.61) | 0.57 (0.56, 0.61) | 0.54 (0.48, 0.59) | 0.59 (0.57, 0.62) |
All clinical information—a model solely consisting of clinical variables (age, gender, smoking, alcohol, prior stroke/TIA, diabetes, hypertension, heart failure, prior myocardial infarction, peripheral arterial disease, vascular disease, AF-type, and prior bleeding). CHA2DS2-VASc—assigns 1 point each for Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Diabetes mellitus, Vascular disease, Age 65–74 years, and Gender category (female gender), and 2 points for Age ≥ 75 years and, prior Stroke/transient ischaemic attack).
TTR, time in therapeutic range (INR 2.0–3.0); ABC-death, Age, Biomarkers (cardiac troponin, NT-proBNP, and GDF-15), Clinical history of heart failure); NOAC, non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulation.
Apixaban in the derivation cohort and dabigatran in the validation cohort.