Table 3.
Estimates obtained from the g-formula: cumulative mortality at 5 years, cumulative mortality difference (MD) between interventions at 5 years, mean measured HAZ at 5 years, and mean measured HAZ difference (MHD) at 5 years. Results are shown (a) for the main scenario (3-month follow-up as in many trials) and for the alternative scenario (irregular follow-up with visit frequency modelled based on our data). All results are reported with 95% bootstrap confidence intervals. Treatment thresholds refer to CD4 count (< 200/350/500/750), CD4% (< 15%/25%), and WAZ (< -2)
| (a) Regular follow-up (3-monthly, as in a trial) |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortality | MD | Mean HAZ | MHD | |||||||||
| Age 1-5 | 95% CI | 95% CI | 95% CI | 95% CI | ||||||||
| no ART | 8.4% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.5% | −1.53 | −1.65 | −1.41 | −0.29 | −0.36 | −0.21 |
| < 350/15%/-2 | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.6% | −1.32 | −1.41 | −1.21 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.06 |
| < 750/25%/-2 | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 0.0% | −0.1% | 0.2% | −1.26 | −1.36 | −1.16 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.004 |
| Immediate | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.5% | – | – | – | −1.24 | −1.34 | −1.15 | – | – | – |
| Age 5-10 | ||||||||||||
| no ART | 7.4% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 4.9% | −1.88 | −1.94 | −1.77 | −0.34 | −0.37 | −0.27 |
| < 200/-2 | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.8% | −1.66 | −1.73 | −1.59 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.09 |
| < 350/-2 | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 0.3% | 0.04% | 0.5% | −1.61 | −1.69 | −1.55 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.05 |
| < 500/-2 | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 0.1% | −0.1% | 0.3% | −1.59 | −1.65 | −1.52 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.02 |
| Immediate | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | – | – | – | −1.54 | −1.62 | −1.48 | – | – | – |
| Age 10-16 | ||||||||||||
| no ART | 12.5% | 11.1% | 15.3% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 4.8% | −1.72 | −1.85 | −1.49 | −0.15 | −0.21 | −0.07 |
| < 200 | 10.0% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 1.1% | −1.63 | −1.75 | −1.41 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.03 |
| < 350 | 9.2% | 8.7% | 11.3% | −0.1% | −0.2% | 0.6% | −1.60 | −1.60 | −1.39 | −0.03 | −0.05 | 0.0 |
| < 500 | 9.4% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 0.1% | −0.3% | 0.4% | −1.58 | −1.70 | −1.38 | −0.01 | −0.03 | 0.01 |
| Immediate | 9.3% | 8.5% | 11.1% | – | – | – | −1.57 | −1.69 | −1.36 | – | – | – |
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|
(b) Irregular follow-up (visit frequency modelled based on our data) |
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| Mortality | MD | Mean HAZ | MHD | |||||||||
|
| ||||||||||||
| Age 1-5 | 95%CI | 95%CI | 95%CI | 95%CI | ||||||||
| no ART | 7.7% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.9% | −1.66 | −1.78 | −1.55 | −0.28 | −0.33 | −0.26 |
| < 350/15%/-2 | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.6% | −1.47 | −1.59 | −1.36 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.07 |
| < 750/25%/-2 | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 0.1% | −0.2% | 0.3% | −1.40 | −1.51 | −1.29 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 |
| Immediate | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.4% | – | – | – | −1.38 | −1.48 | −1.27 | – | – | – |
| Age 5-10 | ||||||||||||
| no ART | 7.1% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 2.6% | −1.77 | −1.85 | −1.72 | −0.12 | −0.15 | −0.10 |
| < 200/-2 | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.5% | −1.71 | −1.80 | −1.66 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.05 |
| < 350/-2 | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 0.3% | −0.1% | 0.4% | −1.70 | −1.78 | −1.65 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.03 |
| < 500/-2 | 5.4% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 0.2% | −0.1% | 0.3% | −1.68 | −1.76 | −1.63 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.02 |
| Iimmediate | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.0% | – | – | – | −1.65 | −1.74 | −1.60 | – | – | – |
| Age 10-16 | ||||||||||||
| no ART | 12.2% | 10.8% | 14.2% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.6% | −1.77 | −1.91 | −1.67 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 |
| < 200 | 11.0% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.9% | −1.76 | −1.89 | −1.67 | −0.03 | −0.04 | 0.00 |
| < 350 | 10.6% | 9.4% | 12.1% | 0.3% | −0.2% | 0.6% | −1.65 | −1.89 | −1.66 | −0.01 | −0.03 | 0.01 |
| < 500 | 10.4% | 9.2% | 11.9% | 0.1% | −0.3% | 0.4% | −1.74 | −1.88 | −1.66 | −0.01 | −0.01 | 0.01 |
| Immediate | 10.3% | 9.2% | 12.0% | – | – | – | −1.73 | −1.88 | −1.66 | – | – | – |