Table 2.
M+F- couples |
F+M- couples |
|||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Non- sero-converter (N = 13547 intervals) |
Linked transmission (N = 207 intervals) |
HR | 95%CI | P-value | Non- sero- converter (N = 13,237 intervals) |
Linked transmission (N = 171 intervals) |
HR | 95%CI | P-value | |||
Exposures of interest | N (%, SD) | N (%, SD) | N (%, SD) | N (%, SD) | ||||||||
Genital inflammation of woman | ||||||||||||
STI | 500 (4) | 20 (10) | 2.48 | 1.54 | 4.01 | < 0.001 | 851 (6) | 15 (9) | 1.61 | 0.92 | 2.82 | 0.10 |
Non-STI | 1282 (10) | 44 (21) | 1.86 | 1.25 | 2.77 | < 0.01 | 1459 (11) | 45 (26) | 3.11 | 1.97 | 4.90 | < 0.001 |
No | 11675 (87) | 144 (69) | ref | 10927 (83) | 111 (65) | ref | ||||||
BIA of woman | ||||||||||||
Yes | 299 (2) | 30 (14) | 4.43 | 2.88 | 6.81 | < 0.001 | 1057 (8) | 38 (22) | 2.84 | 1.82 | 4.43 | < 0.001 |
No | 13158 (98) | 177 (86) | ref | 12180 (92) | 133 (78) | ref | ||||||
Genital ulcer of woman | ||||||||||||
Yes | 573 (4) | 29 (14) | 3.00 | 1.97 | 4.56 | < 0.001 | 1118 (8) | 26 (15) | 1.51 | 0.97 | 2.36 | 0.07 |
No | 12884 (96) | 178 (86) | ref | 12119 (92) | 145 (85) | ref | ||||||
Genital inflammation of man | ||||||||||||
STI | 189 (1) | 14 (7) | 4.01 | 2.31 | 6.98 | < 0.001 | 145 (1) | 2 (1) | 1.02 | 0.25 | 4.16 | 0.98 |
Non-STI | 111 (1) | 5 (3) | 2.03 | 0.82 | 5.05 | 0.127 | 188 (1) | 10 (6) | 2.68 | 1.36 | 5.26 | < 0.01 |
No | 13157 (98) | 188 (91) | ref | 12904 (97) | 159 (93) | ref | ||||||
BIA of man | ||||||||||||
Yes | 2451 (18) | 98 (47) | 4.49 | 3.07 | 6.58 | < 0.001 | 859 (6) | 49 (29) | 6.29 | 4.05 | 9.75 | < 0.001 |
No | 11006 (82) | 109 (53) | ref | 12378 (94) | 122 (71) | ref | ||||||
Genital ulcer of man | ||||||||||||
Yes | 1824 (14) | 52 (25) | 1.74 | 1.26 | 2.41 | 0.001 | 719 (5) | 37 (22) | 5.02 | 3.43 | 7.35 | < 0.001 |
No | 11633 (86) | 155 (75) | ref | 12518 (95) | 134 (78) | ref | ||||||
Sexual behaviour and family planning characteristics | ||||||||||||
No. unprotected sex acts with study partner since last visita | 2.4 (8.5) | 3.7 (10.3) | 1.00 | 0.99 | 1.01 | 0.89 | 3.9 (12.4) | 9.9 (21.8) | 1.02 | 1.01 | 1.02 | < 0.001 |
Any unprotected sex with study partner since last visit | ||||||||||||
Yes | 4087 (30) | 87 (42) | 1.39 | 1.04 | 1.84 | 0.02 | 4646 (36) | 100 (58) | 2.39 | 1.75 | 3.25 | < 0.001 |
No | 9433 (70) | 119 (58) | ref | 8409 (64) | 71 (42) | ref | ||||||
Sperm present on vaginal swab wet mount | ||||||||||||
Yes | 831 (6) | 25 (13) | 1.52 | 0.98 | 2.37 | 0.06 | 811 (6) | 25 (15) | 2.03 | 1.28 | 3.21 | < 0.01 |
No | 12685 (94) | 183 (87) | ref | 12420 (94) | 147 (85) | ref | ||||||
Current pregnancy | ||||||||||||
Yes | 1130 (9) | 27 (14) | 1.41 | 0.94 | 2.12 | 0.097 | 819 (7) | 26 (16) | 2.27 | 1.49 | 3.46 | < 0.001 |
No | 11168 (91) | 171 (86) | ref | 10575 (93) | 135 (84) | ref | ||||||
Incident pregnancy | ||||||||||||
Yes | 487 (4) | 16 (8) | 1.40 | 0.84 | 2.34 | 0.20 | 435 (4) | 11 (7) | 1.56 | 0.84 | 2.88 | 0.16 |
No | 11253 (96) | 185 (92) | ref | 10838 (96) | 150 (93) | ref | ||||||
Associations with foreskin smegma (pre-2002 only) | ||||||||||||
Circumcision status by smegma | ||||||||||||
Circumcised | 383 (9) | 6 (6) | ref | 737 (20) | 7 (10) | ref | ||||||
Uncircumcised and no smegma | 3356 (82) | 78 (78) | 1.49 | 0.65 | 3.41 | 0.35 | 2580 (71) | 49 (71) | 2.06 | 0.93 | 4.57 | 0.08 |
Uncircumcised and smegma | 367 (9) | 16 (16) | 2.82 | 1.10 | 7.24 | 0.03 | 323 (9) | 13 (19) | 3.73 | 1.47 | 9.45 | 0.01 |
Circumcision status by man's BIA | ||||||||||||
Circumcised | ||||||||||||
BIA of man: Yes | 224 (5) | 2 (2) | 0.42 | 0.08 | 2.32 | 0.32 | 125 (3) | 1 (1) | 0.91 | 0.11 | 7.68 | 0.93 |
BIA of man: No | 159 (4) | 4 (4) | ref | 612 (17) | 6 (9) | ref | ||||||
Uncircumcised and no smegma | ||||||||||||
BIA of man: Yes | 1773 (43) | 51 (51) | 1.25 | 0.44 | 3.57 | 0.67 | 542 (15) | 27 (39) | 5.28 | 2.12 | 13.15 | < 0.001 |
BIA of man: No | 1583 (39) | 27 (27) | 0.75 | 0.26 | 2.17 | 0.60 | 2038 (56) | 22 (32) | 1.17 | 0.47 | 2.90 | 0.74 |
Uncircumcised and smegma | ||||||||||||
BIA of man: Yes | 226 (6) | 12 (12) | 2.32 | 0.73 | 7.45 | 0.16 | 114 (3) | 6 (9) | 5.50 | 1.72 | 17.58 | < 0.01 |
BIA of man: No | 141 (3) | 4 (4) | 1.34 | 0.33 | 5.48 | 0.68 | 209 (6) | 7 (10) | 3.22 | 1.07 | 9.74 | 0.04 |
Foreskin smegma recorded from 1994 to 2002. P-values are two-tailed from Cox models. Variables not associated with the outcome (not tabled): time-varying contraceptive methods, unilateral inguinal adenopathy. Counts may not sum to total intervals due to missing data.
Indicates a continuous variable, mean and standard deviation reported.