Table 2.
Regional-level baseline rotavirus deaths and deaths averted under three rotavirus vaccine booster dose scenarios.
| WHO region (# of countries) | Stepwise waning | Linear waning | Logarithmic waning | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median | 95%CI | Median | 95%CI | Median | 95%CI | |
| Baseline | ||||||
| African (47) | 64,036 | 61971, 66025 | 62,466 | 60612, 64444 | 62,382 | 60531, 64358 |
| Americas (32) | 1,864 | 1793, 1934 | 1,724 | 1663, 1789 | 1,722 | 1660, 1786 |
| Eastern Mediterranean (21) | 19,915 | 18909, 20943 | 16,935 | 15979, 17830 | 16,918 | 15960, 17815 |
| European (27) | 881 | 818, 945 | 925 | 854, 992 | 903 | 834, 970 |
| Southeast Asia (11) | 30,768 | 28078, 33671 | 28,507 | 25883, 31133 | 27,838 | 25273, 30398 |
| Western Pacific (22) | 4,933 | 4687, 5177 | 3,591 | 3375, 3818 | 3,507 | 3297, 3728 |
| Total (160) | 122,407 | 119010, 126165 | 114,157 | 110680, 117685 | 113,268 | 109857, 116741 |
|
| ||||||
| Reduced waning of vaccine effectiveness | ||||||
| African (47) | 4,383 | 4226, 4555 | 886 | 854, 921 | 1,345 | 1297, 1398 |
| Americas (32) | 94 | 89, 100 | 19 | 18, 21 | 48 | 46, 50 |
| Eastern Mediterranean (21) | 1,249 | 1161, 1340 | 256 | 238, 275 | 400 | 372, 428 |
| European (27) | 88 | 81, 95 | 18 | 17, 19 | 54 | 50, 58 |
| Southeast Asia (11) | 3,477 | 3150, 3857 | 718 | 650, 796 | 1,090 | 987, 1209 |
| Western Pacific (22) | 504 | 472, 538 | 94 | 87, 101 | 144 | 134, 154 |
| Total (160) | 9,804 | 9399, 10219 | 1,993 | 1910, 2078 | 3,083 | 2956, 3212 |
|
| ||||||
| Reestablished vaccine effectiveness | ||||||
| African (47) | 8,765 | 8453, 9111 | 1,772 | 1709, 1841 | 2,690 | 2594, 2795 |
| Americas (32) | 189 | 178, 201 | 39 | 37, 41 | 96 | 91, 100 |
| Eastern Mediterranean (21) | 2,498 | 2322, 2681 | 512 | 476, 550 | 800 | 744, 857 |
| European (27) | 176 | 163, 190 | 36 | 33, 39 | 107 | 100, 116 |
| Southeast Asia (11) | 6,953 | 6299, 7715 | 1,435 | 1300, 1539 | 2,179 | 1974, 2418 |
| Western Pacific (22) | 1,009 | 944, 1076 | 188 | 175, 202 | 288 | 267, 308 |
| Total (160) | 19,608 | 18798, 20437 | 3,985 | 3820, 4156 | 6,165 | 5912, 6424 |
|
| ||||||
| Boosted vaccine effectiveness | ||||||
| African (47) | 13,148 | 12679, 13666 | 2,658 | 2563, 2762 | 4,035 | 3891, 4193 |
| Americas (32) | 283 | 267, 301 | 110 | 105, 115 | 144 | 137, 151 |
| Eastern Mediterranean (21) | 3,747 | 3482, 4021 | 800 | 745, 855 | 1,201 | 1117, 1285 |
| European (27) | 263 | 244, 285 | 128 | 118, 138 | 161 | 149, 174 |
| Southeast Asia (11) | 10,430 | 9449, 11572 | 2,153 | 1950, 2389 | 3,269 | 2961, 3627 |
| Western Pacific (22) | 1,513 | 1415, 1615 | 285 | 265, 305 | 432 | 401, 462 |
| Total (160) | 29,412 | 28197, 30656 | 6,138 | 5887, 6394 | 9,248 | 8868, 9636 |