Table 3.
Results of generalized linear models of total, somatic and psychiatric health care costs
| Total costs | Somatic costs | Psychiatric costs | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poisson-log | Gamma-log | Poisson-log | Gamma-log | Poisson-log | Gamma-log | |||||||
| Exp. coef. | (SE) | Exp. coef. | (SE) | Exp. coef. | (SE) | Exp. coef. | (SE) | Exp. coef. | (SE) | Exp. coef. | (SE) | |
| Chronic somatic conditions | ||||||||||||
| Infectious diseases | 2.749*** | (0.411) | 2.412*** | (0.441) | 6.323*** | (1.405) | 3.947*** | (0.907) | 1.848*** | (0.268) | 1.488** | (0.254) |
| Skin problems | 1.493*** | (0.231) | 1.683** | (0.405) | 1.979*** | (0.430) | 1.609*** | (0.284) | 1.221 | (0.210) | 1.604* | (0.450) |
| Musculoskeletal system | 1.335*** | (0.145) | 1.758*** | (0.289) | 1.232* | (0.134) | 1.680*** | (0.223) | 1.404** | (0.193) | 2.020*** | (0.407) |
| Digestive system | 0.871 | (0.107) | 1.078 | (0.131) | 1.091 | (0.149) | 1.231* | (0.142) | 0.755 | (0.129) | 1.025 | (0.148) |
| Circulatory system | 1.592 | (0.531) | 1.621* | (0.404) | 2.546*** | (0.904) | 1.707*** | (0.317) | 1.047 | (0.230) | 1.447 | (0.410) |
| Endocrine system | 1.143 | (0.286) | 1.165 | (0.258) | 1.523 | (0.414) | 1.762*** | (0.332) | 1.072 | (0.274) | 0.973 | (0.261) |
| Respiratory system | 0.890 | (0.142) | 0.810 | (0.109) | 0.902 | (0.170) | 0.835 | (0.102) | 0.963 | (0.171) | 0.799 | (0.122) |
| Nervous system | 1.211 | (0.279) | 1.522* | (0.338) | 1.184 | (0.242) | 1.155 | (0.167) | 1.139 | (0.359) | 1.737** | (0.482) |
| Psychiatric conditions | ||||||||||||
| Schizophrenia | 2.549*** | (0.468) | 2.369*** | (0.516) | 0.967 | (0.340) | 0.748 | (0.154) | 3.090*** | (0.648) | 3.290*** | (0.802) |
| Mood disorder | 1.096 | (0.197) | 0.871 | (0.156) | 1.116 | (0.309) | 1.155 | (0.246) | 1.336* | (0.230) | 0.854 | (0.187) |
| Neurotic disorder | 1.674*** | (0.185) | 1.622*** | (0.173) | 1.319* | (0.201) | 1.466*** | (0.166) | 1.903*** | (0.219) | 1.776*** | (0.201) |
| Behavioral syndrome | 0.911 | (0.170) | 0.949 | (0.172) | 0.613** | (0.144) | 0.587*** | (0.103) | 1.118 | (0.232) | 1.279 | (0.277) |
| Personality disorder | 1.455*** | (0.190) | 1.252* | (0.145) | 1.304* | (0.177) | 1.139 | (0.136) | 1.545*** | (0.243) | 1.326** | (0.170) |
| Mental retardation | 1.261 | (0.367) | 1.189 | (0.211) | 1.355 | (0.415) | 0.810 | (0.149) | 1.197 | (0.466) | 1.460* | (0.308) |
| Substance abuse | ||||||||||||
| Alcohol | 1.030 | (0.119) | 1.315*** | (0.139) | 0.871 | (0.098) | 0.952 | (0.091) | 1.054 | (0.162) | 1.573*** | (0.191) |
| Illicit drugs | 1.288** | (0.156) | 1.878*** | (0.269) | 0.582*** | (0.109) | 1.060 | (0.130) | 1.710*** | (0.239) | 2.542*** | (0.402) |
| Pharmaceuticals | 1.914*** | (0.277) | 1.735*** | (0.281) | 1.559** | (0.288) | 1.215 | (0.185) | 2.079*** | (0.347) | 2.219*** | (0.479) |
| Demographic characteristics | ||||||||||||
| Aged 30–39 | 1.222* | (0.141) | 1.372** | (0.173) | 1.584*** | (0.251) | 1.153 | (0.128) | 1.056 | (0.147) | 1.508*** | (0.213) |
| Aged 40–49 | 1.405*** | (0.173) | 1.397** | (0.184) | 2.249*** | (0.388) | 1.521*** | (0.206) | 1.061 | (0.146) | 1.382** | (0.206) |
| Aged 50 and older | 0.994 | (0.287) | 2.544*** | (0.789) | 1.377 | (0.405) | 1.811*** | (0.405) | 0.956 | (0.275) | 3.285*** | (1.241) |
| Female | 0.559** | (0.154) | 0.809 | (0.345) | 1.207 | (0.425) | 1.157 | (0.391) | 0.374*** | (0.105) | 0.815 | (0.403) |
| Married | 1.144 | (0.197) | 1.146 | (0.138) | 1.152 | (0.242) | 1.011 | (0.113) | 1.085 | (0.198) | 1.133 | (0.146) |
| Swiss origin | 1.104 | (0.134) | 1.429** | (0.215) | 0.817 | (0.147) | 1.166 | (0.167) | 1.240 | (0.181) | 1.602*** | (0.265) |
| Health insurance | 1.145 | (0.123) | 0.930 | (0.097) | 1.036 | (0.185) | 0.866 | (0.085) | 1.224 | (0.162) | 0.971 | (0.115) |
| Prison stay characteristics | ||||||||||||
| Stayed in Bois-Mermet prison | 0.558*** | (0.090) | 0.672** | (0.113) | 0.798 | (0.186) | 0.766* | (0.121) | 0.444*** | (0.076) | 0.620** | (0.126) |
| Stayed in Plaine d’Orbe prison | 0.798 | (0.136) | 0.656** | (0.120) | 0.989 | (0.251) | 0.785 | (0.131) | 0.685** | (0.130) | 0.610** | (0.141) |
| Stayed in Croisée prison | 0.840 | (0.135) | 0.783 | (0.127) | 1.086 | (0.290) | 0.910 | (0.142) | 0.687** | (0.112) | 0.701* | (0.136) |
| Stayed in La Tuilière prison | 1.621** | (0.347) | 1.892*** | (0.436) | 1.619 | (0.515) | 1.428 | (0.314) | 1.344 | (0.283) | 1.764** | (0.455) |
| Violent crime | 0.634* | (0.166) | 0.919 | (0.210) | 0.743 | (0.207) | 0.869 | (0.177) | 0.713 | (0.182) | 1.035 | (0.295) |
| Sexual crime | 1.587** | (0.319) | 1.411* | (0.279) | 2.058** | (0.609) | 1.449 | (0.340) | 1.478* | (0.306) | 1.263 | (0.291) |
| Drug-related crime | 0.890 | (0.106) | 0.725*** | (0.079) | 0.973 | (0.133) | 0.824* | (0.083) | 0.902 | (0.109) | 0.709*** | (0.090) |
| Preventive detention | 1.270** | (0.152) | 1.204 | (0.151) | 1.366** | (0.203) | 1.162 | (0.131) | 1.236 | (0.166) | 1.176 | (0.161) |
| Under art. 59 SCC | 3.009*** | (0.755) | 7.282*** | (3.106) | 1.372 | (0.677) | 2.580** | (1.152) | 2.952*** | (0.819) | 9.796*** | (4.406) |
| Under art. 64 SCC | 1.340 | (0.419) | 4.216 | (3.727) | 0.714 | (0.265) | 0.960 | (0.630) | 1.620 | (0.498) | 6.678** | (6.303) |
| Number of stays in 2011 | 1.102 | (0.150) | 1.219* | (0.131) | 1.100 | (0.148) | 1.056 | (0.088) | 1.138 | (0.173) | 1.305** | (0.168) |
| Total length of stay | 0.999*** | (0.000) | 0.998*** | (0.000) | 0.998*** | (0.000) | 0.998*** | (0.000) | 0.999*** | (0.000) | 0.997*** | (0.000) |
| Ln(Length of stay in 2011) | 1 (exposure) | 1 (exposure) | 1 (exposure) | 1 (exposure) | 1 (exposure) | 1 (exposure) | ||||||
| Constant | 11.427*** | (1.883) | 12.347*** | (1.982) | 2.522*** | (0.658) | 5.519*** | (0.879) | 9.225*** | (1.636) | 6.970*** | (1.268) |
| Modified Park testa | 1.032 | 1.459*** | 1.337*** | 1.724* | 0.866 | 1.458*** | ||||||
| Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p-value) | 0.068* | 0.000*** | 0.000*** | 0.000*** | 0.091* | 0.000*** | ||||||
| Cross-sample RMSE | 4788.92 | 16,395.76 | 2305.08 | 2245.27 | 4474.69 | 24,926.08 | ||||||
| Cross-sample MPE | −82.91 | − 1600.29 | −16.97 | −102.17 | −116.94 | − 2336.04 | ||||||
N = 1107
Exponentiated coefficients with robust standard errors in parentheses. Aged 18–29, male, convicted and other type of offence are reference categories. Abbreviations: Swiss Criminal Code (SCC), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean prediction error (MPE)
* p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01
aThe table presents the estimate of the power of the conditional variance function, and significance levels indicate whether it is significantly different from the closest integer. For the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, p-values are presented