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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2018 Aug 1.
Published in final edited form as: Ann Neurol. 2017 Jul 19;82(2):177–185. doi: 10.1002/ana.24985

TABLE 3.

Multistate Survival Analysis: Estimated Incidence of Sz and Remaining Chance of Sz

Remaining Probability of Sz

Clinical Factors State 1 Hour 6 Hours 12 Hours 24 Hours Hours to < 5% Sz Overall Probability of Sz
No coma & No prior Sz, Entry 0.04 (0.03–0.06) 0.02 (0.01–0.03) 0.02 (0.01–0.03) 0.01 (0.00–0.02) 0.4 Sz from entry state 0.09 (0.06–0.12)
n = 312 [101]a EEG risk 0.15 (0.10–0.20) 0.08 (0.05–0.12) 0.06 (0.04–0.09) 0.02 (0.01–0.06) 14.4 Sz from risk state 0.18 (0.12–0.24)
Enter risk state 0.33 (0.29–0.40)

No coma & prior Sz, Entry 0.12 (0.10–0.17) 0.07 (0.05–0.11) 0.05 (0.04–0.09) 0.02 (0.01–0.05) 12.7 Sz from entry state 0.30 (0.23–0.37)
n = 223 [91]a EEG risk 0.28 (0.21–0.37) 0.15 (0.10–0.24) 0.12 (0.08–0.19) 0.04 (0.02–0.12) 21.7 Sz from risk state 0.35 (0.25–0.48)
Enter risk state 0.40 (0.21–0.50)

Comatose & no prior Sz, Entry 0.05 (0.03–0.08) 0.03 (0.01–0.05) 0.02 (0.01–0.04) 0.01 (0.00–0.02) 1.2 Sz from entry state 0.13 (0.08–0.17)
n = 85 [34]a EEG risk 0.33 (0.23–0.47) 0.18 (0.11–0.29) 0.14 (0.09–0.24) 0.05 (0.02–0.14) 16.7 Sz from risk state 0.39 (0.28–0.52)
Enter risk state 0.36 (0.26–0.48)

Comatose & prior Sz, Entry 0.16 (0.10–0.24) 0.09 (0.05–0.14) 0.07 (0.04–0.12) 0.02 (0.01–0.07) 16.4 Sz from entry state 0.36 (0.24–0.50)
n = 44 [19]a EEG risk 0.57 (0.41–0.74) 0.34 (0.22–0.52) 0.26 (0.17–0.43) 0.10 (0.04–0.28) 44.2 Sz from risk state 0.64 (0.48–0.86)
Enter risk state 0.42 (0.29–0.58)

Data are presented numbers in parentheses representing 95% confidence intervals from bootstrap resampling. EEG risk state in this context refers to subjects who develop the EEG findings of lateralized periodic discharges, bilateral periodic discharges, lateralized rhythmic discharges, lateralized spike wave, sporadic epileptiform discharges, and/or brief ictal rhythmic discharges.

a

Number of subjects in each category in brackets is the number who developed an EEG risk factor.

EEG = electroencephalographic; Sz = seizures.