TABLE 1.

Prior distributions

Parameter	High-risk adjustment factor†		Sexual mixing parameter‡		Condom use adjustment factor†		Initial HIV prevalence in high-risk women aged 15–49§		Antenatal bias (logit scale)†
	Mean	Standard deviation	Mean	Standard deviation	Mean	Standard deviation	Mean	Standard deviation	Mean	Standard deviation
Prior mean (SD)
EC	0.84	0.21	0.35	0.15	0.99	0.099	0.10	0.048	0.38	0.019
FS	1.12	0.28	0.35	0.15	1.14	0.114	0.10	0.048	0.39	0.020
GT	1.20	0.30	0.35	0.15	1.06	0.106	0.15	0.071	0.51	0.026
KZ	1.29	0.32	0.35	0.15	1.08	0.108	0.20	0.095	0.38	0.019
LP	0.83	0.21	0.35	0.15	1.04	0.104	0.10	0.048	0.36	0.018
MP	0.97	0.24	0.35	0.15	1.02	0.102	0.10	0.048	0.41	0.020
NC	0.51	0.13	0.35	0.15	0.64	0.064	0.10	0.048	0.44	0.022
NW	0.86	0.22	0.35	0.15	1.05	0.105	0.10	0.048	0.37	0.019
WC	0.61	0.15	0.35	0.15	0.74	0.074	0.10	0.048	0.49	0.025

SD, standard deviation; EC, Eastern Cape; FS, Free State; GT, Gauteng; KZ, KwaZulu-Natal; LP, Limpopo; MP, Mpumalanga; NC, Northern Cape; NW, North West; WC, Western Cape.

^†, Gamma;

^‡, Beta;

^§, Uniform.