Figure 3.

Predicted Indirectly ReCognizable HLA Epitopes presented by recipient HLA class II (PIRCHE-II) affects both early and long-term graft outcome. The hazard on kidney graft failure for ln(PIRCHE-II) at different virtual endpoints after transplantation is displayed in (A). Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CI’s were calculated for different virtual endpoints (1–2–3–4–5–6–9–12–18 months and 2–3–4–5–6–7–8–9–10 years after transplantation), as exemplified by the lower panel of (A). HRs were calculated using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models and smooth curve fitting was performed based on these data points. In the upper panel of (A), the solid line represents the HR and the dotted line represents the 95% CI. The kidney graft failure risks for different time spans when excluding subjects who experienced kidney graft failure before different time points are displayed in (B). For these analyses, the graft survival was set to 100% at each analyzed time point (1–2–3–4–5–6–9–12–18 months and 2–3–4–5–6–7 years after transplantation) and the HR were calculated at 10 years after transplantation, as exemplified in the lower panel of (B). The number of patients at risk at each analyzed time span is shown in Table S1 in Supplementary Material. Due to the low number of events and the limited follow-up time around 7 years after transplantation, the later time spans could not be analyzed. HR’s and 95% CI’s were calculated for different time spans using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models and smooth curve fitting was performed based on these data points. In the upper panel of (B), the solid line represents the HR and the dotted line represents the 95% CI. For both (A,B), the individual dots represent the HR’s at different virtual endpoints/time spans. HR’s were calculated using forward stepwise selection considering the covariates implemented in the initial multivariable model [ln(PIRCHE-II), donor age, recipient age, and year of transplantation].