Table 5.
Regression coefficients, ORs and 95% CrI from Bayesian spatial model (Model II) for human seropositivity for Echinococcus multilocularis in three school-based surveys conducted in Xiji County in 2002–2003, 2006–2007 and 2012–2013
| Model/Variable | Coefficient, posterior mean (95% CrI) | OR, posterior mean (95% CrI) |
|---|---|---|
| α1 (Intercept study 1) | -2.25 (-3.38– -1.39) | – |
| α2 (Intercept study2) | -1.75 (-2.47– -0.94) | – |
| α3 (Intercept study 3) | -2.88 (-3.90– -2.13) | – |
| Femalea | 0.09 (-0.11–0.24) | 1.09 (0.89–1.28) |
| Age | -0.01 (-0.03–0.02) | 0.99 (0.96–1.02) |
| Summer precipitation same year (1 km) | 6.53 × 103 (3.40 × 103–9.31 × 103) | 1.01 (1.01–1.02) |
| EVI same year (1 km) | 4.97 × 106 (7.10 × 104–6.21 × 104) | 1.00 (0.99–1.00) |
| Bareland/Art surfaces same year (1 km) | -0.02 (-0.05–0.01) | 0.99 (0.99–1.00) |
| Cultivated land 5 years prior (1 km) | 0.01 (-0.01–0.02) | 1.01 (0.99–1.02) |
| Cultivated land same year (1 km) | -0.01 (-0.01–0.01) | 0.99 (0.98–1.01) |
| Herbaceous vegetation 5-year average (1 km) | -0.01 (-0.01–0.01) | 0.99 (0.98–1.00) |
| Water bodies average (1 km) | 0.60 (0.24–0.91) | 1.82 (1.27–2.50) |
| Forest same year (1 km) | -0.01 (-0.01–0.01) | 1.00 (0.99–1.01) |
| NumP 5-year average (1 km) | -0.01 (-0.02– -0.01) | 0.98 (0.97–0.99) |
| MPS 5-year average (1 km) | -0.19 (-0.68–0.13) | 0.82 (0.50–1.14) |
| ED 5-year average (1 km) | 5.11 × 103 (2.10 × 104–9.97 × 103) | 1.01 (1.01–1.02) |
| Elevation (5 km) | 3.99 × 104 (1.64 × 103–1.00 × 103) | 0.99 (0.99–1.01) |
| Winter precipitation 5-year average (5 km) | -0.11 (-0.17– -0.04) | 0.89 (0.83–0.95) |
| Summer temperature 5 years prior (5 km) | -0.01 (-0.38–0.35) | 0.99 (0.67–1.42) |
| Forest 5-year average (5 km) | 0.01 (-0.01–0.01) | 1.00 (0.99–1.01) |
| Water bodies 5 years prior (5 km) | 0.02 (-0.16–0.20) | 1.02 (0.84–1.23) |
| Water bodies 5-year average (5 km) | -0.02 (-0.07–0.01) | 0.97 (0.92–1.01) |
| Shrubland 5 years prior (5 km) | -1.58 (-2.95– -0.29) | 0.20 (0.05–0.74) |
| Shrubland same year (5 km) | 0.95 (-0.45–2.10) | 2.59 (0.63–8.23) |
| Cultivated land same year (5 km) | -0.01 (-0.02–0.01) | 0.99 (0.97–1.01) |
| NumP same year (5 km) | 1.66 × 104 (1.25 × 104–4.71 × 104) | 1.01 (0.99–1.01) |
| Heterogeneity structured (survey 1) | 3.09 × 103 (5.33 × 104–9.19 × 103) | – |
| Heterogeneity structured (survey 2) | 2.29 × 103 (3.11 × 104–5.28 × 103) | – |
| Heterogeneity structured (survey 3) | 2.29 × 103 (3.11 × 104–5.28 × 103) | – |
| ϕ1(Decay of spatial correlation survey 1) | 0.07 (0.01–0.23) | – |
| ϕ2 (Decay of spatial correlation survey 2) | 0.10 (0.02–0.40) | – |
| ϕ 3 (Decay of spatial correlation survey 3) | 0.26 (0.09–0.52) | – |
| DIC | 3697 | – |
Abbreviations: OR odds ratio, 95% CrI 95% credible interval, DIC deviance information criterion
aReference category: gender (male)