Fig. 2.

Proportion of malaria-infected mosquitoes with sporozoites present in the salivary glands (i.e. becoming infectious) over time following an infectious blood meal. Here the dynamics of EIP are characterized using a logistic model following the approach of Paaijmans et al. [77] and Shapiro et al. [23, 60] (and see also data in Hien et al. [57]). The conventional way of estimating EIP is to measure the time at which sporozoites first appear in salivary glands of infected mosquitoes (approximating the EIP₁₀). However, given EIP is not perfectly synchronized between individual mosquitoes, the EIP could equally be characterized using alternative measures such as the median value for the mosquito population (EIP₅₀), or the time at which the maximum proportion of the population become infectious (approximating the EIP₉₀). In this illustrative example we assume all infected mosquitoes go on to become infectious. If conversion efficiency of oocysts to sporozoites is less than 100%, the asymptote will be reduced