Table 1.
Variable | Base Case Value | Reference | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cohort characteristics | |||||
Age, y (SD) | 36 (0) | [15] | |||
Distribution of initial CD4 (mean cells/µL) ± SD | 751 (267) | [30] | |||
HIV RNA distribution after acute infection, % | |||||
>100000 copies/mL | 25 | Derived from [33] | |||
30001–100000 copies/mL | 42 | ||||
10001–30000 copies/mL | 21 | ||||
3001–10000 copies/mL | 12 | ||||
Overall first-line antiretroviral therapy efficacy | |||||
HIV RNA suppressed at 6 months, % | 91 | [32] | |||
Smoking prevalence, % | |||||
Age | US General Population (M/F) | Derived from [17] | |||
≤50 years | 27.7/21.4 | ||||
>50 years | 17.6/14.9 | ||||
HIV-Uninfected, at High Risk for HIV and PLWH (M/F) | |||||
≤50 years | 43.0/36.3 | ||||
>50 years | 37.2/31.6 | ||||
CVD-attributable mortality, % monthly M/F | |||||
Age (y) | All cohorts | Derived from [21, 22] | |||
20–29 | 0.11/0.07 | ||||
30–39 | 0.15/0.09 | ||||
40–49 | 0.24/0.13 | ||||
50–59 | 0.21/0.14 | ||||
60–69 | 0.24/0.22 | ||||
70+ | 0.46/0.65 | ||||
CVD prevalence, % at initiation (M/F) | |||||
Age (y) | General Population a | HIV-Uninfected, at High Risk for HIV b | PLWHb | ||
20–29 | 0.6/0.5 | 0.7/0.6 | 1.2/1.0 | ||
30–39 | 1.5/1.3 | 1.7/1.4 | 2.9/2.4 | ||
40–49 | 3.2/2.7 | 3.5/2.9 | 6.1/4.9 | ||
50–59 | 8.4/5.9 | 10.1/6.7 | 17.2/11.1 | ||
60–69 | 15.8/8.9 | 19.0/10.1 | 28.1/14.4 | ||
70+ | 28.4/17.6 | 34.1/20.0 | 56.2/30.1 | ||
Estimated CVD incidence, cases per 10000 people per month (M/F) | |||||
Age (y) | General Population | HIV-Uninfected, at High Risk for HIV | PLWH | ||
20–29 | 0.5/0.4 | 0.6/0.5 | 1.1/0.8 | ||
30–39 | 1.4/1.1 | 1.5/1.2 | 2.7/2.1 | ||
40–49 | 3.0/2.4 | 3.4/2.6 | 5.9/4.6 | ||
50–59 | 8.1/5.5 | 9.8/6.2 | 17.2/10.9 | ||
60–69 | 15.1/8.4 | 18.1/9.6 | 31.9/16.9 | ||
70+ | 36.4/22.9 | 43.7/26.0 | 76.8/45.7 |
All values are reported as male/female.
Abbreviations: CVD, cardiovascular disease; HIV; human immunodeficiency virus; PLWH; people living with HIV; SD, standard deviation.
aDerived from National Health Interview Survey using positive predictive values (see Methods and Supplementary Appendix).
bDerived using CEPAC model as described in the Methods.