Table 5.
Success of Variables From Administrative Database in Identifying CHD, as Measured by AUC and Marginal Effect on Predicted Probabilities From the Logistic Model
| Probability of CHD | Effect of variables on predicted probability of CHD+ from logistic model (marginal effects) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defect subgroups alone | Including age and encounter types | ||||
| Defect subgroups from ICD‐9 codes | |||||
| Group 1 [base] (n=356): Eis/cyanosis/PAH, conotruncal abnormality, coarctation of the aorta, AVSD, Ebstein anomaly, PV anomaly | 0.91 | Ref | Ref | Ref | Ref |
| (0.88–0.94) | |||||
| Group 2 (n=465): single ventricle/Fontan, TGA, pulmonary valve stenosis, bicuspid aortic valve, subaortic stenosis | 0.82 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.03 |
| (0.78–0.85) | (−0.13 to −0.04) | (−0.15 to −0.04) | (−0.13 to −0.02) | (−0.10 to 0.04) | |
| Group 3 (n=691): anomalous coronary artery, shunt | 0.35 | −0.56 | −0.50 | −0.47 | −0.36 |
| (0.31–0.39) | (−0.60 to −0.51) | (−0.55 to −0.44) | (−0.52 to −0.41) | (−0.43 to −0.30) | |
| Group 4 (n=681): other congenital heart abnormalities | 0.18 | −0.73 | −0.67 | −0.62 | −0.48 |
| (0.15–0.21) | (−0.77 to −0.68) | (−0.72 to −0.62) | (−0.67 to −0.56) | (−0.54 to −0.41) | |
| Age: each 10‐y increase after age 18 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.04 | ||
| (−0.06 to −0.04) | (−0.06 to −0.05) | (−0.05 to −0.03) | |||
| Encounter types | |||||
| Obstetrics | −0.39 | −0.36 | |||
| (−0.46 to −0.32) | (−0.43 to −0.29) | ||||
| ECG or echocardiography | +0.15 | +0.05 | |||
| (0.11–0.18) | (0.02–0.09) | ||||
| Specialist in ACHD | +0.36 | ||||
| (0.31–0.42) | |||||
| C statistic/AUC | 0.82 (0.80–0.83) | 0.85 (0.83–0.87) | 0.87 (0.86–0.89) | 0.89 (0.88–0.90) | |
The 95% confidence intervals are shown in parentheses. C statistic/AUC, the probability that a randomly selected true congenital case has higher prediction from the logistic model than a randomly selected noncongenital patient, reflects performance of the combination of variables as classifiers. Variables were excluded because of poor performance, sex, adult and pediatric cardiology encounters. ACHD indicates adult congenital heart disease; AUC, area under the curve; AVSD, atrioventricular septal defect; CHD, congenital heart disease; Eis, Eisenmenger syndrome; ICD‐9, International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision; PAH, pulmonary arterial hypertension; PV, pulmonary vein; TGA, transposition of the great arteries.