Table 1.

Summary of the bovine TB surveillance analysis results for low-risk areas in England and for Scotland between 2009 and 2013

Surveillance scenario	Interval (years)	Herds tested		Animals tested		Detected infections		Latent infections		False positives
		LRA	Scotland	LRA	Scotland	LRA	Scotland	LRA	Scotland	LRA	Scotland
Baseline scenarios
Slaughterhouse	n.a.	0	0	0	0	120	33	80	30	0	0
4 Year	4	3235	2444	391 613	412 293	144	45	32	12	72	58
2 Year	2	6471	4888	783 226	824 587	142	46	15	5	143	115
1 Year	1	12 942	9776	1 566 452	1 649 175	136	45	4	1	286	231
Risk-based surveillance
Scenario 1	0/2/4	3065	2090	369 673	349 453	147	45	29	11	68	49
Scenario 2	0/4	2531	1930	290 579	304 968	143	45	33	12	56	45
Scenario 3	0/4	2074	1629	220 621	227 379	142	44	35	13	45	37
Scenario 4	0/1/2/4	2827	2262	448 135	454 829	143	46	33	11	68	57
Scenario 5	0/1/2/4	1803	1483	264 090	308 083	139	43	39	14	41	36
Scenario 6	0/1/2/4	1682	1328	213 163	244 088	138	42	40	14	37	31
Scenario 7	1/4	3878	3428	735 237	1 352 799	145	46	30	3	270	207
Scenario 8	1/4	3486	2871	570 664	736 476	144	45	31	11	80	72
Scottish scenario	0/4	2166	1602	292 074	306 499	139	43	37	14	51	41

The ‘4 year’ baseline scenario is the one currently implemented in LRAs and the ‘current’ risk-based scenario is the one that has been implemented in Scotland since January 2012.