Table 3.
Prediction of case status (primary analysis) at 48 M by biomarker concentrations at baseline and by TICs of biomarkers over 12 and 24 M
| Biomarker | Baseline concentration | 12 M TIC | 24 M TIC | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Mean (SD) median z score | OR (95% CI) p Value |
Mean (SD) median z score | OR (95% CI) p Value |
Mean (SD) median z score | OR (95% CI) p Value |
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| Comparators | Cases | Comparators | Cases | Comparators | Cases | ||||
| Serum C1, 2C | −0.03 (0.98) | 0.06 (1.04) | 1.09 (0.91 to 1.30) | −0.01 (1.00) | 0.02 (1.00) | 1.02 (0.85 to 1.22) | −0.02 (1.01) | 0.05 (0.98) | 1.07 (0.89 to 1.27) |
| −0.09 | −0.02 | 0.3510 | −0.04 | −0.04 | 0.8354 | −0.15 | −0.01 | 0.4686 | |
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| Serum C2C | −0.02 (0.94) | 0.04 (1.11) | 1.05 (0.88 to 1.26) | −0.01 (0.98) | 0.02 (1.05) | 1.00 (0.83 to 1.20) | −0.03 (0.97) | 0.05 (1.05) | 1.07 (0.89 to 1.28) |
| −0.16 | −0.12 | 0.5772 | −0.12 | −0.09 | 0.9940 | −0.07 | −0.03 | 0.4779 | |
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| Serum Coll2-1 NO2 | 0.00 (1.03) | −0.00 (0.94) | 1.00 (0.83 to 1.21) | 0.01 (1.02) | −0.01 (0.96) | 0.98 (0.80 to 1.19) | −0.00 (1.02) | 0.00 (0.95) | 1.02 (0.85 to 1.23) |
| −0.18 | −0.13 | 0.9601 | −0.19 | −0.18 | 0.8195 | −0.23 | −0.15 | 0.8238 | |
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| Serum CPII | 0.00 (1.02) | −0.00 (0.95) | 0.98 (0.81 to 1.18) | 0.01 (1.00) | −0.02 (1.00) | 0.95 (0.78 to 1.16) | 0.01 (1.02) | −0.01 (0.95) | 0.98 (0.81 to 1.19) |
| −0.15 | −0.13 | 0.8017 | −0.11 | −0.18 | 0.6212 | −0.14 | −0.18 | 0.8179 | |
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| Serum CS846 | −0.01 (0.96) | 0.03 (1.09) | 1.06 (0.89 to 1.25) | −0.01 (0.95) | 0.03 (1.11) | 1.06 (0.89 to 1.26) | −0.02 (0.93) | 0.04 (1.13) | 1.07 (0.90 to 1.26) |
| −0.21 | −0.23 | 0.5286 | −0.19 | −0.26 | 0.5024 | −0.20 | −0.25 | 0.4560 | |
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| Serum CTXI | −0.05 (1.01) | 0.10 (0.96) | 1.18 (0.99 to 1.41) | −0.07 (0.98) | 0.16 (1.04) | 1.29 (1.08 to 1.54) | −0.07 (0.97) | 0.15 (1.05) | 1.28 (1.08 to 1.53) |
| −0.28 | −0.04 | 0.0583 | −0.24 | 0.02 | 0.0057 | −0.25 | 0.02 | 0.0051 | |
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| Serum COMP | 0.02 (1.02) | −0.05 (0.95) | 0.89 (0.74 to 1.07) | 0.02 (1.02) | −0.05 (0.95) | 0.90 (0.74 to 1.09) | 0.02 (1.03) | −0.04 (0.94) | 0.91 (0.76 to 1.09) |
| −0.13 | −0.24 | 0.2254 | −0.10 | −0.26 | 0.2687 | −0.07 | −0.25 | 0.3083 | |
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| Serum HA | −0.04 (1.03) | 0.07 (0.93) | 1.07 (0.89 to 1.29) | −0.06 (1.00) | 0.12 (1.00) | 1.18 (0.98 to 1.44) | −0.06 (0.98) | 0.13 (1.02) | 1.22 (1.01 to 1.48) |
| −0.32 | −0.22 | 0.4466 | −0.35 | −0.14 | 0.0877 | −0.36 | −0.12 | 0.0415 | |
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| Serum MMP3 | −0.02 (1.00) | 0.03 (1.00) | 0.99 (0.81 to 1.22) | −0.03 (0.99) | 0.07 (1.03) | 1.06 (0.86 to 1.31) | −0.04 (0.99) | 0.08 (1.02) | 1.09 (0.88 to 1.34) |
| −0.22 | −0.24 | 0.9416 | −0.22 | −0.15 | 0.5978 | −0.22 | −0.14 | 0.4345 | |
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| Serum NTXI | −0.05 (0.99) | 0.10 (1.01) | 1.18 (0.99 to 1.41) | −0.07 (0.97) | 0.16 (1.05) | 1.28 (1.07 to 1.53) | −0.07 (0.97) | 0.14 (1.05) | 1.25 (1.05 to 1.48) |
| −0.22 | −0.01 | 0.0591 | −0.21 | 0.00 | 0.0064 | −0.20 | −0.09 | 0.0131 | |
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| Serum PIIANP | 0.04 (0.99) | −0.09 (1.03) | 0.88 (0.74 to 1.06) | 0.06 (0.98) | −0.13 (1.04) | 0.83 (0.69 to 1.00) | 0.04 (0.96) | −0.08 (1.07) | 0.89 (0.75 to 1.07) |
| −0.03 | −0.16 | 0.1729 | 0.09 | −0.18 | 0.0490 | 0.08 | −0.10 | 0.2102 | |
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| Urine Coll2-1 NO2 creatinine adjusted | −0.02 (1.02) | 0.03 (0.96) | 1.05 (0.88 to 1.24) | −0.03 (1.01) | 0.06 (0.98) | 1.10 (0.92 to 1.31) | −0.03 (1.01) | 0.07 (0.97) | 1.11 (0.93 to 1.31) |
| −0.27 | −0.20 | 0.6075 | −0.29 | −0.12 | 0.2878 | −0.28 | −0.13 | 0.2384 | |
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| Urine C1, 2C creatinine adjusted | 0.03 (1.02) | −0.06 (0.96) | 0.91 (0.76 to 1.09) | 0.01 (1.02) | −0.03 (0.96) | 0.97 (0.80 to 1.16) | 0.00 (1.02) | −0.01 (0.97) | 0.99 (0.83 to 1.19) |
| −0.14 | −0.30 | 0.3166 | −0.11 | −0.09 | 0.7105 | −0.11 | −0.10 | 0.9339 | |
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| Urine C2C-HUSA creatinine adjusted | −0.04 (0.95) | 0.09 (1.09) | 1.12 (0.94 to 1.34) | −0.05 (0.98) | 0.11 (1.04) | 1.16 (0.96 to 1.39) | −0.08 (0.94) | 0.16 (1.11) | 1.27 (1.06 to 1.53) |
| −0.20 | −0.08 | 0.2030 | −0.25 | −0.05 | 0.1231 | −0.25 | −0.06 | 0.0108 | |
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| Urine CTXII creatinine adjusted | −0.07 (0.96) | 0.15 (1.06) | 1.29 (1.08 to 1.55) | −0.08 (0.98) | 0.19 (1.02) | 1.35 (1.12 to 1.62) | −0.09 (0.98) | 0.19 (1.01) | 1.37 (1.15 to 1.65) |
| −0.35 | −0.09 | 0.0049 | −0.30 | 0.03 | 0.0015 | −0.31 | 0.03 | 0.0006 | |
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| Urine NTXI creatinine adjusted | −0.04 (1.03) | 0.09 (0.94) | 1.17 (0.98 to 1.39) | −0.06 (1.00) | 0.12 (0.98) | 1.24 (1.03 to 1.49) | −0.07 (1.00) | 0.14 (0.98) | 1.29 (1.08 to 1.54) |
| −0.24 | −0.07 | 0.0842 | −0.18 | −0.11 | 0.0199 | −0.22 | −0.03 | 0.0057 | |
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| Urine CTXIa creatinine adjusted | −0.05 (0.99) | 0.11 (1.01) | 1.20 (1.01 to 1.43) | −0.07 (0.98) | 0.15 (1.03) | 1.28 (1.07 to 1.53) | −0.08 (0.97) | 0.17 (1.04) | 1.32 (1.11 to 1.58) |
| −0.26 | −0.10 | 0.0364 | −0.27 | −0.02 | 0.0065 | −0.30 | 0.04 | 0.0020 | |
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| Urine CTXIp creatinine adjusted | −0.03 (1.01) | 0.06 (0.97) | 1.14 (0.96 to 1.36) | −0.06 (0.97) | 0.13 (1.06) | 1.27 (1.06 to 1.52) | −0.06 (0.95) | 0.13 (1.08) | 1.27 (1.06 to 1.51) |
| −0.27 | −0.12 | 0.1408 | −0.27 | −0.11 | 0.0099 | −0.27 | −0.09 | 0.0086 | |
Odds shown per 1 SD increase in biomarker.
Values in bold represent associations of p≤0.05.
OR adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, race, baseline joint space width, Kellgren-Lawrence grade, baseline pain and pain medication use.
COMP, cartilage oligomeric matrix protein; CPII, C-propeptide of type II collagen; CS846, chondroitin sulfate 846 epitope; CTXI, C-terminal crosslinked telopeptide of type I collagen; CTXII, C-terminal crosslinked telopeptide type II collagen; HA, hyaluronan; NTXI, N-telopeptide of type I collagen; TIC, time-integrated concentration.