Table 4.
Odds of being a pain, radiographic JSL or combination (pain and JSL) progressor compared with neither pain nor JSL progression (secondary analysis) based on a 1 SD increase in biomarker concentrations
| Biomarker | Biomarker prediction of odds (95% CI) of progression compared with reference subjects without any progression | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline concentration | 12 M TIC | 24 M TIC | |||||||
| JSL-only progressor (n=103) |
Pain-only progressor (n=103) |
Progressors (JSL and pain) (n=194) | JSL-only progressor (n=103) |
Pain-only progressor (n=103) |
Progressors (JSL and -pain) (n=194) |
JSL-only progressor (n=103) |
Pain-only progressor (n=103) |
Progressors (JSL and pain) (n=194) |
|
| Serum C1, 2C | 1.11 (0.86 to 1.43) | 0.98 (0.76 to 1.26) | 1.12 (0.91 to 1.37) | 1.12 (0.86 to 1.44) | 1.00 (0.78 to 1.28) | 1.05 (0.85 to 1.30) | 1.12 (0.87 to 1.45) | 1.03 (0.80 to 1.32) | 1.11 (0.90 to 1.37) |
| Serum-C2C (ng/ml) | 1.04 (0.81 to 1.34) | 0.92 (0.71 to 1.18) | 1.03 (0.84 to 1.27) | 1.04 (0.81 to 1.35) | 0.92 (0.71 to 1.19) | 0.98 (0.79 to 1.21) | 1.05 (0.81 to 1.35) | 0.97 (0.75 to 1.25) | 1.06 (0.86 to 1.31) |
| Serum Coll2-1 NO2 | 1.00 (0.75 to 1.32) | 1.05 (0.82 to 1.34) | 1.01 (0.82 to 1.26) | 0.94 (0.70 to 1.25) | 0.98 (0.76 to 1.26) | 0.95 (0.76 to 1.18) | 0.91 (0.68 to 1.22) | 0.97 (0.75 to 1.25) | 0.99 (0.80 to 1.22) |
| Serum CPII | 0.89 (0.65 to 1.21) | 1.16 (0.91 to 1.49) | 0.99 (0.79 to 1.24) | 1.00 (0.75 to 1.33) | 1.10 (0.85 to 1.43) | 0.96 (0.77 to 1.21) | 0.99 (0.73 to 1.33) | 1.15 (0.90 to 1.47) | 1.01 (0.80 to 1.27) |
| Serum CS846 | 0.76 (0.57 to 1.01) | 0.99 (0.78 to 1.25) | 1.00 (0.82 to 1.21) | 0.77 (0.58 to 1.03) | 1.01 (0.80 to 1.29) | 1.02 (0.83 to 1.24) | 0.80 (0.60 to 1.06) | 1.04 (0.82 to 1.31) | 1.05 (0.86 to 1.28) |
| Serum CTXI | 1.13 (0.87 to 1.46) | 1.14 (0.89 to 1.47) | 1.24 (1.01 to 1.53) | 1.10 (0.84 to 1.43) | 1.15 (0.89 to 1.47) | 1.36 (1.10 to 1.68) | 1.10 (0.85 to 1.42) | 1.09 (0.85 to 1.41) | 1.34 (1.09 to 1.65) |
| Serum COMP | 0.88 (0.69 to 1.14) | 0.96 (0.74 to 1.23) | 0.86 (0.70 to 1.06) | 0.94 (0.73 to 1.21) | 1.04 (0.80 to 1.33) | 0.90 (0.72 to 1.11) | 0.94 (0.73 to 1.21) | 1.07 (0.83 to 1.37) | 0.92 (0.74 to 1.13) |
| Serum HA | 1.19 (0.89 to 1.58) | 1.29 (0.98 to 1.69) | 1.21 (0.96 to 1.54) | 1.18 (0.89 to 1.57) | 1.14 (0.85 to 1.53) | 1.29 (1.02 to 1.64) | 1.17 (0.88 to 1.56) | 1.19 (0.88 to 1.60) | 1.34 (1.05 to 1.70) |
| Serum MMP3 | 1.15 (0.87 to 1.52) | 1.03 (0.75 to 1.40) | 1.04 (0.81 to 1.34) | 1.07 (0.80 to 1.45) | 1.02 (0.74 to 1.41) | 1.09 (0.84 to 1.40) | 1.07 (0.79 to 1.45) | 0.99 (0.72 to 1.36) | 1.11 (0.86 to 1.43) |
| Serum NTXI | 1.03 (0.80 to 1.33) | 1.07 (0.83 to 1.38) | 1.18 (0.96 to 1.45) | 1.04 (0.80 to 1.35) | 1.08 (0.84 to 1.40) | 1.29 (1.05 to 1.60) | 1.08 (0.84 to 1.40) | 1.07 (0.83 to 1.38) | 1.27 (1.03 to 1.56) |
| Serum PIIANP | 0.74 (0.57 to 0.96) | 0.85 (0.66 to 1.09) | 0.79 (0.64 to 0.98) | 0.71 (0.55 to 0.92) | 0.88 (0.68 to 1.13) | 0.74 (0.60 to 0.92) | 0.70 (0.54 to 0.91) | 0.85 (0.66 to 1.09) | 0.79 (0.64 to 0.97) |
| Urine Coll2-1 NO2 creatinine adjusted | 1.04 (0.80 to 1.36) | 1.11 (0.87 to 1.42) | 1.10 (0.89 to 1.35) | 0.93 (0.71 to 1.22) | 1.04 (0.82 to 1.33) | 1.10 (0.90 to 1.36) | 0.92 (0.69 to 1.21) | 1.17 (0.92 to 1.49) | 1.16 (0.95 to 1.43) |
| Urine C1, 2C creatinine adjusted | 1.12 (0.87 to 1.44) | 1.25 (0.99 to 1.59) | 1.01 (0.82 to 1.25) | 1.07 (0.83 to 1.39) | 1.35 (1.06 to 1.72) | 1.10 (0.88 to 1.36) | 1.09 (0.84 to 1.41) | 1.39 (1.09 to 1.78) | 1.14 (0.92 to 1.41) |
| Urine C2C-HUSA creatinine adjusted | 1.23 (0.94 to 1.62) | 1.35 (1.04 to 1.74) | 1.27 (1.02 to 1.58) | 1.32 (1.01 to 1.74) | 1.38 (1.06 to 1.80) | 1.35 (1.07 to 1.69) | 1.40 (1.05 to 1.85) | 1.36 (1.03 to 1.80) | 1.50 (1.19 to 1.90) |
| Urine CTXII creatinine adjusted | 1.49 (1.12 to 1.98) | 1.55 (1.17 to 2.06) | 1.62 (1.27 to 2.07) | 1.47 (1.10 to 1.95) | 1.53 (1.16 to 2.01) | 1.67 (1.31 to 2.12) | 1.54 (1.16 to 2.04) | 1.53 (1.16 to 2.02) | 1.72 (1.36 to 2.18) |
| Urine NTXI creatinine adjusted | 1.01 (0.76 to 1.34) | 1.23 (0.96 to 1.58) | 1.22 (0.99 to 1.51) | 0.99 (0.74 to 1.31) | 1.26 (0.98 to 1.62) | 1.31 (1.06 to 1.64) | 1.03 (0.77 to 1.36) | 1.24 (0.96 to 1.60) | 1.37 (1.10 to 1.71) |
| Urine CTXIα creatinine adjusted | 1.02 (0.77 to 1.36) | 1.12 (0.87 to 1.45) | 1.22 (0.99 to 1.51) | 1.04 (0.78 to 1.38) | 1.18 (0.91 to 1.53) | 1.34 (1.08 to 1.67) | 1.08 (0.81 to 1.43) | 1.16 (0.89 to 1.51) | 1.39 (1.12 to 1.73) |
| Urine CTXIβ creatinine adjusted | 1.02 (0.78 to 1.33) | 1.08 (0.84 to 1.37) | 1.15 (0.94 to 1.41) | 1.03 (0.79 to 1.35) | 1.15 (0.90 to 1.48) | 1.32 (1.07 to 1.63) | 1.11 (0.85 to 1.45) | 1.16 (0.90 to 1.49) | 1.35 (1.09 to 1.66) |
Values in bold represent associations of p≤0.05.
ORs are for comparison with knees with neither radiographic JSL nor pain progression and were adjusted for all covariates (age, sex, body mass index, race, baseline joint space width, Kellgren-Lawrence grade, baseline pain and pain medication use).
COMP, cartilage oligomeric matrix protein; CPII, C-propeptide of type II collagen; CS846, chondroitin sulfate 846 epitope; CTXI, C-terminal crosslinked telopeptide of type I collagen; CTXII, C-terminal crosslinked telopeptide type II collagen; HA, hyaluronan; JSL, joint space loss; NTXI, N-telopeptide of type I collagen; TIC, time-integrated concentration.