Table 5.

Hierarchical models for 24 M TIC—serum and urine markers

	Model 1: uCTXII only	Model 2: uCTXII, sHA	Model 3: uCTXII, sHA, uCTXI ALPHA	Model 4: uCTXII, sHA, uCTXI ALPHA, uNTXI	Model 5: uCTXII, sHA, uCTXI ALPHA, sNTXI	Model 6: uCTXII, sHA, sNTXI
AUC (biomarkers only, no cross-validation)	0.583	0.614	0.626	0.625	0.635	0.631
AUC (including covariates*, no cross-validation)	0.646	0.660	0.668	0.669	0.672	0.667
AUC (including covariates*, 10-fold cross-validation)	0.602	0.613	0.617	0.610	0.617	0.618
uCTXII	p=0.0006	p=0.0057	p=0.0625	p=0.0662	p=0.0636	p=0.0129
z≤−1 vs −1<z<−0.5	0.5 (0.2, 0.9)	0.5 (0.2, 1.0)	0.5 (0.3, 1.1)	0.5 (0.3, 1.1)	0.5 (0.2, 1.0)	0.5 (0.2, 1.0)
z>−0.5 vs −1<z≤−0.5	1.5 (1.0, 2.3)	1.4 (0.9, 2.1)	1.2 (0.8, 1.9)	1.2 (0.8, 1.9)	1.2 (0.7, 1.8)	1.3 (0.8, 2.0)
sHA		p=0.0755	p=0.0503	p=0.0507	p=0.0623	p=0.0893
z≤−0.5 vs −0.5<z≤1		0.7 (0.5, 1.1)	0.7 (0.5, 1.1)	0.7 (0.5, 1.1)	0.7 (0.5, 1.1)	0.8 (0.5, 1.1)
z>1 vs −0.5<z≤1		1.4 (0.8, 2.4)	1.5 (0.9, 2.5)	1.5 (0.9, 2.5)	1.5 (0.9, 2.5)	1.4 (0.8, 2.4)
uCTXI ALPHA			p=0.0853	p=0.3263	p=0.2818
z≤−0.5 vs −0.5<z≤0.5			0.8 (0.5, 1.2)	0.8 (0.5, 1.3)	0.8 (0.5, 1.2)
z>0.5 vs −0.5<z≤0.5			1.4 (0.9, 2.1)	1.4 (0.8, 2.4)	1.2 (0.8, 1.9)
uNTXI				p=0.9975
z≤−0.5 vs −0.5<z≤1				1.0 (0.6, 1.7)
z>1 vs −0.5<z≤1				1.0 (0.5, 1.9)
sNTXI					p=0.2091	p=0.0414
z>1 vs z≤1					1.4 (0.8, 2.4)	1.6 (1.0, 2.6)

ORs and p values for ORs are unadjusted for covariates: AUC *covariate models adjusted for all covariates (age, sex, body mass index, race, baseline joint space width, Kellgren-Lawrence grade, baseline pain and pain medication use).

AUC, area under the curve; TIC, time-integrated-concentration.