Table 1.

Parameter Values Used to Define Upper and Lower Bounds of Sampling Ranges

Parameter	Sampled Range	References	Notes
Death threshold (log10 units)	7.0–10.0a	[37–39]	Burdens in animal models rarely measure greater than 109 units per lung.
Width of the window between symptom and death thresholds (log10 units)b	4.0–7.0a	[39–41]	Burdens in animals with asymptomatic infection may be as high as 103 units.
Progression → Recovery transition rate	0.001–0.35 per weeka,c	Derived	Assume 5% transition per year, and no more than 75% transition per month.
Recovery → Progression transition rate	10−5–10−4 per weeka,d	[42]	Probability of reactivation in latent infections estimated to be 0.8% per year.
Mode of the progression phase growth rate	0.035–0.714 per weeke,f	[39–41]	Assume patients progress from onset to death in 3–60 months, assuming 104 unit symptom window.
Mode of the recovery phase growth rate	(−0.462)−0.035 per weeke,g	[43]	Assume patients self-resolve at 1/4 the rate of chemotherapeutic recovery (as defined by time to sputum conversion).

^aRange sampled uniformly on the log₁₀ scale.

^bThe symptom threshold in a given simulation is derived by value of the death threshold and the value of the symptom window width.

^cA 0.35 weekly rate of transition is equivalent to a 75% monthly probability of transition.

^dRates in this range are equivalent to 0.05%–5.0% probabilities of transition.

^eRange sampled uniformly on the log-modulus scale.

^fProgression rates in this range are equivalent to net population doubling times in the range of 6–137 days.

^gProgression rates in this range are equivalent to the range of a population half-life of 11 days to a population doubling time of 137 days.