Table 1.
Model Selection
| Model Structure | Model Fitting | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model | Partner Acquisition | HPV Acquisition Probabilitya | Immune Waning | AIC (IQR) | COD, % (IQR) | Mean Time, y, to Loss of Immunity (IQR) |
| M1 | Age | Constant | Yes | –8.0 (–8.8 to –7.2) | 58.5 (56.7–60.1) | 68.5 (64.9–74.6) |
| M2 | Age & cohort | Constant | No | –12.2 (–13.8 to –10.4) | 65.8 (61.1–70.0) | … |
| M3 | Age & cohort | Constant | Yes | –13.3 (–14.7 to –11.3) | 74.3 (70.0–78.0) | 144.9 (108.7–192.3) |
| M4 | Age & cohort | Linear in age | Yes | –11.6 (–13.2 to –9.2) | 74.6 (69.2–79.0) | 64.1 (40.7–161.3) |
| M5 | Age & cohort | Linear in cohort | Yes | –12.0 (–13.4 to –10.5) | 75.8 (72.1–79.4) | 51.0 (36.2–82) |
| M6 | Age & cohort | Linear in age, cohort | Yes | –10.6 (–12.0 to –8.8) | 76.9 (72.6–80.6) | 49.0 (33.0–79.4) |
| M7 | Age & cohort | Proportional to female partner acquisition rate | Yes | 24.2 (15.4–46.2) | –25.2 (–46.9 to –1.9) | >5000 |
Abbreviations: AIC, Akaike information criteria; COD, coefficient of determination; HPV, human papillomavirus; IQR, interquartile range.
aPer new partner.