Table 3.
Indicators of the model performance to detect the beginning of an epidemic period
| Region | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | PPV (%)* | NPV (%)** | Median timeliness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All data | 71·8 | 95·5 | 91·3 | 88·6 | 1 |
| Influenza‐like Illness data | 75·7 | 96·0 | 92·4 | 90·4 | 1 |
| Belgium | 94·6 | 98·7 | 97·3 | 97·3 | 0 |
| Castilla y Leon | 77·3 | 98·4 | 96·4 | 91·5 | 0 |
| Greece | 85·5 | 93·6 | 90·6 | 95·2 | 0·5 |
| Hungary | 76·8 | 93·5 | 92·9 | 88·7 | 1 |
| Ireland | 55·4 | 96·1 | 93·9 | 83·8 | 2 |
| Israel | 72·6 | 96·4 | 93·9 | 88·1 | 1 |
| Kyrgyzstan | 80·0 | 92·0 | 81·5 | 88·1 | 1 |
| Norway | 59·6 | 91·4 | 88·4 | 81·7 | 4·5 |
| Poland | 68·4 | 94·2 | 88·9 | 90·3 | 1·5 |
| Portugal | 69·7 | 97·7 | 93·5 | 85·3 | 0 |
| Romania | 74·1 | 95·1 | 87·5 | 91·6 | 2 |
| Slovenia | 83·1 | 98·8 | 95·1 | 95·8 | 0·5 |
| Spain | 77·5 | 98·3 | 95·9 | 90·5 | 1 |
| Switzerland | 92·3 | 97·1 | 93·1 | 97·3 | 0 |
| The Netherlands | 68·2 | 98·6 | 96·7 | 90·8 | 2 |
| Acute Respiratory Infection data | 60·1 | 94·1 | 88·2 | 83·3 | 2 |
| Albania | 50·0 | 94·8 | 90·0 | 69·3 | 4 |
| Kazakhstan | 72·5 | 89·6 | 83·8 | 80·2 | 1 |
| Romania | 51·3 | 95·0 | 89·4 | 86·5 | 2 |
| Russian Federation | 76·6 | 95·6 | 90·2 | 95·0 | 1 |
| Ukraine | 50·2 | 95·7 | 87·7 | 85.3 | 2 |
*Positive predictive value.
**Negative predictive value.