Figure 2.

CMIP5 response in the RCP8.5 scenario in early winter (OND) for (a) the sea ice concentration (%), (b) the surface heat flux response associated with sea ice loss (W m⁻²), and (c) the zonal wind at 850 hPa (m s⁻¹). (d–f) As in Figures 2a–2c but for the late winter (JFM) response. The multimodel median, rather than mean, is used for the sea ice and the heat flux responses due to the large spatial biases of the models in these fields. In Figures 2a and 2d magenta lines give the 50% SIC in the median of the historical simulations. In Figures 2c and 2f the gray contours show the 4 m s⁻¹ (outer) and 8 m s⁻¹ (inner) mean zonal winds in the historical simulations.