Table 2. Bivariate variance component analysis applied to the timing of leaf unfolding (LU) and leaf senescence (LS), and derived statistics. For each component, the first line indicates the least squares regression slope b and the second line, the R² of the relationship as an estimate of the conditional variance of the traits (see Hansen 2003).

Components	All populations	Low elevation	High elevation
bp−ln situ*	-0.30 (-0.48, -0.09) 0.64 (0.12, 0.97)	-0.29 (-0.84, 0.08) 0.41 (0, 0.89)	-0.11 (-1, 0.71) 0.18 (0, 0.79)
bp−Common	0.45 (-0.29, 1.07) 0.22 (0, 0.64)	0.65 (-0.61, 1.85) 0.27 (0, 0.81)	0.47 (-1.36, 2.58) 0.28 (0, 0.85)
Contrast bp †	0.74 (0.01, 1.42)	0.96 (-0.35, 2.07)	0.65 (-1.25, 2.98)
ba	0.22 (0.04, 0.43) 0.02 (0, 0.07)	0.33 (0.08, 0.55) 0.05 (0, 0.12)	0.02 (-0.24, 0.33) 0.01 (0, 0.05)
bd	0.03 (-20.93, 20.11) 0.07 (0, 0.46)	-0.03 (-18.17, 27.29) 0.16 (0, 0.75)	0.12 (-19.03, 20.76) 0.16 (0, 0.78)
bε	0.25 (0.21, 0.29) 0.02 (0.02, 0.03)	0.22 (0.16, 0.29) 0.01 (0.01, 0.02)	0.27 (0.22, 0.32) 0.03 (0.02, 0.04)

^*Each slope estimate corresponds to b = σ(LU, LS)/σ²(LU), with the indices p, a, d and ε denoting the regression slopes estimated at the between-population (for in situ and common garden experimental designs), genetic, individual non-genetic and within-individual levels, respectively, see the Methods section (equation [1]). 95% credible intervals for b and R² are indicated in brackets.

^†Contrast b_p is calculated as follows: b_p–Common garden – b_p–ln situ.