Fig. 1.

Schematic of the multidisease model for Zimbabwe.

The model simulates demography (blue), HIV-infection (orange), and noncommunicable diseases (green). The model accounts for demographic and medical risk factors for HIV infection and for development of noncommunicable diseases (red arrows to individual conditions and group of conditions). The model starts in 1950 and runs until 2035, making projections from 2015 onwards. Demographic and noncommunicable disease patterns are simulated from 1950 and the HIV epidemic from 1975. From 2015, the model is used to forecast the timing and nature of noncommunicable diseases in the general population and people living with HIV.