Table 4.
Predictive probabilities of transitioning between states and the time spent in each state for estimated proteinuria*
| Estimated probability (95% CI) of being in estimated proteinuria state | Expected time spent in estimated proteinuria state, years | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial state | Estimated proteinuria state 1 | Estimated proteinuria state 2 | Estimated proteinuria state 3 | ESRD | Death | Estimated proteinuria state 1 | Estimated proteinuria state 2 | Estimated proteinuria state 3 | ESRD | Death |
| 1 year | ||||||||||
| Estimated proteinuria state 1 | 0.81 (0.78–0.83) | 0.17 (0.15–0.19) | 0.011 (0.008–0.013) | 0.004 (0.002–0.016) | 0.006 (0.003–0.011) | 0.892 | 0.1 | 0.004 | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Estimated proteinuria state 2 | 0.35 (0.33–0.38) | 0.56 (0.53–0.59) | 0.062 (0.05–0.077) | 0.016 (0.011–0.027) | 0.007 (0.004–0.013) | 0.205 | 0.74 | 0.043 | 0.008 | 0.003 |
| Estimated proteinuria state 3 | 0.16 (0.13–0.19) | 0.46 (0.41–0.51) | 0.31 (0.24–0.38) | 0.056 (0.035–0.099) | 0.016 (0.008–0.044) | 0.064 | 0.32 | 0.575 | 0.032 | 0.009 |
| ESRD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.99 (0.94–1) | 0.010 (0.001–0.063) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.995 | 0.005 |
| 2 years | ||||||||||
| Estimated proteinuria state 1 | 0.72 (0.69–0.74) | 0.24 (0.22–0.26) | 0.022 (0.018–0.028) | 0.010 (0.007–0.027) | 0.012 (0.007–0.02) | 1.649 | 0.311 | 0.021 | 0.008 | 0.012 |
| Estimated proteinuria state 2 | 0.49 (0.46–0.52) | 0.4 (0.37–0.43) | 0.058 (0.046–0.07) | 0.029 (0.021–0.047) | 0.014 (0.009–0.025) | 0.64 | 1.21 | 0.105 | 0.031 | 0.014 |
| Estimated proteinuria state 3 | 0.34 (0.3–0.38) | 0.43 (0.39–0.46) | 0.12 (0.091–0.17) | 0.08 (0.05–0.14) | 0.026 (0.014–0.058) | 0.321 | 0.775 | 0.772 | 0.101 | 0.03 |
| ESRD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.98 (0.88–1) | 0.019 (0.002–0.12) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.981 | 0.019 |
| 5 years | ||||||||||
| Estimated proteinuria state 1 | 0.62 (0.57–0.64) | 0.28 (0.25–0.3) | 0.034 (0.027–0.043) | 0.033 (0.025–0.078) | 0.031 (0.021–0.053) | 3.618 | 1.122 | 0.112 | 0.071 | 0.076 |
| Estimated proteinuria state 2 | 0.58 (0.54–0.6) | 0.29 (0.26–0.31) | 0.038 (0.029–0.048) | 0.059 (0.043–0.096) | 0.034 (0.024–0.06) | 2.31 | 2.195 | 0.242 | 0.166 | 0.087 |
| Estimated proteinuria state 3 | 0.52 (0.47–0.55) | 0.28 (0.25–0.31) | 0.039 (0.029–0.05) | 0.11 (0.078–0.17) | 0.047 (0.031–0.097) | 1.709 | 1.789 | 0.964 | 0.397 | 0.141 |
| ESRD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.95 (0.71–0.99) | 0.047 (0.006–0.29) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.882 | 0.118 |
*
Estimated proteinuria was defined as estimated 24-hour urine protein excretion. 95% CI = 95% confidence interval; ESRD = end-stage renal disease.