Figure 1.

Changes in epidemic and economic outcomes when vaccination is implemented, or not, under conditions conducive to large outbreaks. Changes in (A) the median estimates of various epidemic outcomes under various vaccine stocks; (B) the probability of the direct cost exceeding £500million, P(x > £500M), depending on days between detection and vaccination; (C) the probability of using more than 95% of the initial vaccine stock; and (D) the median direct economic costs incurred by each sector when vaccination is not implemented, or implemented 14 days after detection assuming an initial vaccine stock that varies between 100,000 and 5 million doses. Epidemic outcomes shown in (A) are number of infected premises (“IPs”), duration of the outbreaks in days (“duration”), number of infected premises and premises identified as dangerous contacts (“IPs + DCs”), and the total direct costs of the outbreak in £millions (“cost”). Shown in panels (B) and (C) are changes in P(x > £500M) and P(x > 0.95xstock) when vaccination is implemented for 7, 14, and 21 days after the detection of the index cases, respectively.