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. 2018 Mar 13;5:47. doi: 10.3389/fvets.2018.00047

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Copyright © 2018 Porphyre, Rich and Auty.

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

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Impact of restocking delays on the epidemic and economic outcomes when implementing a vaccination strategy under conditions conducive to large outbreaks. Changes in (A) the median estimates of various epidemic outcomes, and (B) the probability of the direct cost exceeding £500million, P(x > £500M), are shown for scenarios which either do not allow a restocking strategy or allow a restocking strategy with increasing delays, from 2 to 16 weeks. Here, initial vaccine stock was limited to 100,000 doses. Solid and dashed lines represent the changes in outcomes when restocking demand is triggered when less than 10% and 50% of the vaccine stock remains, respectively.