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. 2017 Jun 2;186(11):1246–1255. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwx188

Table 4.

Hazard Ratios for Cardiovascular Disease by Trajectory of Body Shape Over the Life Course (Ages 5–55 Years) Among Women From the Nurses’ Health Study (1976–2010) and Men From the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986–2010)a

Body Shape Trajectory No. of Participants No. of Cases Incidence Rateb Age-Stratified HRc 95% CI Multivariate HRc,d 95% CI
Women (NHS)
Cardiovascular disease
 Lean-stable 11,183 742 384.3 1.00 Referent 1.00 Referent
 Medium-stable 22,381 1,317 351.0 0.98 0.90, 1.07 0.97 0.89, 1.06
 Lean-moderate increase 16,534 1,279 450.2 1.20 1.09, 1.31 1.18 1.08, 1.29
 Lean-marked increase 13,201 979 468.8 1.45 1.32, 1.60 1.38 1.25, 1.52
 Heavy-increase 9,690 788 531.9 1.69 1.53, 1.87 1.55 1.40, 1.71
Coronary heart disease
 Lean-stable 11,199 351 179.6 1.00 Referent 1.00 Referent
 Medium-stable 22,418 641 168.7 1.01 0.88, 1.14 0.99 0.87, 1.13
 Lean-moderate increase 16,565 631 218.6 1.24 1.09, 1.41 1.21 1.06, 1.38
 Lean-marked increase 13,245 528 248.5 1.62 1.42, 1.86 1.49 1.30, 1.71
 Heavy-increase 9,717 448 297.6 1.99 1.73, 2.29 1.75 1.52, 2.02
Stroke
 Lean-stable 11,192 424 217.1 1.00 Referent 1.00 Referent
 Medium-stable 22,401 726 191.4 0.95 0.84, 1.07 0.95 0.84, 1.07
 Lean-moderate increase 16,543 710 246.2 1.16 1.03, 1.31 1.16 1.03, 1.31
 Lean-marked increase 13,240 504 237.0 1.31 1.15, 1.49 1.29 1.13, 1.47
 Heavy-increase 9,714 371 245.8 1.40 1.22, 1.61 1.33 1.16, 1.54
Men (HPFS)
Cardiovascular disease
 Lean-stable 5,559 607 700.7 1.00 Referent 1.00 Referent
 Medium-stable 5,491 601 710.9 1.11 0.99, 1.24 1.10 0.98, 1.23
 Lean-moderate increase 5,820 861 902.9 1.19 1.07, 1.32 1.16 1.05, 1.29
 Lean-marked increase 11,162 1,470 878.6 1.32 1.20, 1.45 1.28 1.16, 1.41
 Heavy-increase 3,938 463 831.9 1.43 1.27, 1.61 1.35 1.20, 1.53
Coronary heart disease
 Lean-stable 5,564 420 478.1 1.00 Referent 1.00 Referent
 Medium-stable 5,496 439 512.8 1.18 1.03, 1.35 1.17 1.02, 1.34
 Lean-moderate increase 5,824 640 660.1 1.28 1.13, 1.45 1.25 1.10, 1.41
 Lean-marked increase 11,170 1,116 657.3 1.45 1.30, 1.62 1.40 1.25, 1.57
 Heavy-increase 3,942 354 627.1 1.58 1.37, 1.82 1.49 1.29, 1.72
Stroke
 Lean-stable 5,567 220 247.4 1.00 Referent 1.00 Referent
 Medium-stable 5,497 180 208.3 0.92 0.76, 1.12 0.92 0.75, 1.12
 Lean-moderate increase 5,831 264 267.9 1.00 0.83, 1.19 0.98 0.82, 1.18
 Lean-marked increase 11,183 419 241.9 1.03 0.87, 1.21 1.01 0.86, 1.19
 Heavy-increase 3,951 121 210.9 1.03 0.83, 1.29 1.00 0.80, 1.25

Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; HPFS, Health Professionals Follow-up Study; HR, hazard ratio; MET, metabolic equivalent of task; NHS, Nurses’ Health Study.

a Baseline participants with cancer or cardiovascular disease were excluded.

b Incidence rate per 100,000 person-years.

c HRs were estimated from a Cox proportional hazards model stratified on age group in 1976 (NHS) or 1986 (HPFS).

d Multivariable models adjusted for height (m; continuous), race (nonwhite or white), pack-years of smoking (women: 0, 1–5, 6–20, or >20; men: 0, 1–4, 5–25, 26–45, or >45), regular aspirin use (yes or no), menopausal hormone therapy (women only; past use, current use, or none), physical activity (MET-hours/week, in quintiles), alcohol consumption (women: 0–0.4, 0.5–1.9, 2.0–7.9, or ≥8.0 g/day; men: 0–4.9, 5.0–9.9, 10.0–14.9, 15.0–29.9, or ≥30.0 g/day), Alternate Healthy Eating Index score (possible range, 0–110; in quintiles), and family history of diabetes (yes or no).