Table 4.
Body Shape Trajectory | No. of Participants | No. of Cases | Incidence Rateb | Age-Stratified HRc | 95% CI | Multivariate HRc,d | 95% CI |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Women (NHS) | |||||||
Cardiovascular disease | |||||||
Lean-stable | 11,183 | 742 | 384.3 | 1.00 | Referent | 1.00 | Referent |
Medium-stable | 22,381 | 1,317 | 351.0 | 0.98 | 0.90, 1.07 | 0.97 | 0.89, 1.06 |
Lean-moderate increase | 16,534 | 1,279 | 450.2 | 1.20 | 1.09, 1.31 | 1.18 | 1.08, 1.29 |
Lean-marked increase | 13,201 | 979 | 468.8 | 1.45 | 1.32, 1.60 | 1.38 | 1.25, 1.52 |
Heavy-increase | 9,690 | 788 | 531.9 | 1.69 | 1.53, 1.87 | 1.55 | 1.40, 1.71 |
Coronary heart disease | |||||||
Lean-stable | 11,199 | 351 | 179.6 | 1.00 | Referent | 1.00 | Referent |
Medium-stable | 22,418 | 641 | 168.7 | 1.01 | 0.88, 1.14 | 0.99 | 0.87, 1.13 |
Lean-moderate increase | 16,565 | 631 | 218.6 | 1.24 | 1.09, 1.41 | 1.21 | 1.06, 1.38 |
Lean-marked increase | 13,245 | 528 | 248.5 | 1.62 | 1.42, 1.86 | 1.49 | 1.30, 1.71 |
Heavy-increase | 9,717 | 448 | 297.6 | 1.99 | 1.73, 2.29 | 1.75 | 1.52, 2.02 |
Stroke | |||||||
Lean-stable | 11,192 | 424 | 217.1 | 1.00 | Referent | 1.00 | Referent |
Medium-stable | 22,401 | 726 | 191.4 | 0.95 | 0.84, 1.07 | 0.95 | 0.84, 1.07 |
Lean-moderate increase | 16,543 | 710 | 246.2 | 1.16 | 1.03, 1.31 | 1.16 | 1.03, 1.31 |
Lean-marked increase | 13,240 | 504 | 237.0 | 1.31 | 1.15, 1.49 | 1.29 | 1.13, 1.47 |
Heavy-increase | 9,714 | 371 | 245.8 | 1.40 | 1.22, 1.61 | 1.33 | 1.16, 1.54 |
Men (HPFS) | |||||||
Cardiovascular disease | |||||||
Lean-stable | 5,559 | 607 | 700.7 | 1.00 | Referent | 1.00 | Referent |
Medium-stable | 5,491 | 601 | 710.9 | 1.11 | 0.99, 1.24 | 1.10 | 0.98, 1.23 |
Lean-moderate increase | 5,820 | 861 | 902.9 | 1.19 | 1.07, 1.32 | 1.16 | 1.05, 1.29 |
Lean-marked increase | 11,162 | 1,470 | 878.6 | 1.32 | 1.20, 1.45 | 1.28 | 1.16, 1.41 |
Heavy-increase | 3,938 | 463 | 831.9 | 1.43 | 1.27, 1.61 | 1.35 | 1.20, 1.53 |
Coronary heart disease | |||||||
Lean-stable | 5,564 | 420 | 478.1 | 1.00 | Referent | 1.00 | Referent |
Medium-stable | 5,496 | 439 | 512.8 | 1.18 | 1.03, 1.35 | 1.17 | 1.02, 1.34 |
Lean-moderate increase | 5,824 | 640 | 660.1 | 1.28 | 1.13, 1.45 | 1.25 | 1.10, 1.41 |
Lean-marked increase | 11,170 | 1,116 | 657.3 | 1.45 | 1.30, 1.62 | 1.40 | 1.25, 1.57 |
Heavy-increase | 3,942 | 354 | 627.1 | 1.58 | 1.37, 1.82 | 1.49 | 1.29, 1.72 |
Stroke | |||||||
Lean-stable | 5,567 | 220 | 247.4 | 1.00 | Referent | 1.00 | Referent |
Medium-stable | 5,497 | 180 | 208.3 | 0.92 | 0.76, 1.12 | 0.92 | 0.75, 1.12 |
Lean-moderate increase | 5,831 | 264 | 267.9 | 1.00 | 0.83, 1.19 | 0.98 | 0.82, 1.18 |
Lean-marked increase | 11,183 | 419 | 241.9 | 1.03 | 0.87, 1.21 | 1.01 | 0.86, 1.19 |
Heavy-increase | 3,951 | 121 | 210.9 | 1.03 | 0.83, 1.29 | 1.00 | 0.80, 1.25 |
Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; HPFS, Health Professionals Follow-up Study; HR, hazard ratio; MET, metabolic equivalent of task; NHS, Nurses’ Health Study.
a Baseline participants with cancer or cardiovascular disease were excluded.
b Incidence rate per 100,000 person-years.
c HRs were estimated from a Cox proportional hazards model stratified on age group in 1976 (NHS) or 1986 (HPFS).
d Multivariable models adjusted for height (m; continuous), race (nonwhite or white), pack-years of smoking (women: 0, 1–5, 6–20, or >20; men: 0, 1–4, 5–25, 26–45, or >45), regular aspirin use (yes or no), menopausal hormone therapy (women only; past use, current use, or none), physical activity (MET-hours/week, in quintiles), alcohol consumption (women: 0–0.4, 0.5–1.9, 2.0–7.9, or ≥8.0 g/day; men: 0–4.9, 5.0–9.9, 10.0–14.9, 15.0–29.9, or ≥30.0 g/day), Alternate Healthy Eating Index score (possible range, 0–110; in quintiles), and family history of diabetes (yes or no).