Table 2.

Hazard Ratios^a for Cardiovascular Disease in the Derivation Data for Each Model in a Study of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction, Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, 1962–2014

Risk Factor	Model 1b		Model 2c		Model 3d
	HR	95% CI	HR	95% CI	HR	95% CI
Baseline age, years	1.08	1.08, 1.08	1.08	1.08, 1.08	1.09	1.09, 1.10
Current smoking (yes vs. no)	1.73	1.66, 1.80	1.73	1.66, 1.81	1.74	1.67, 1.81
History of diabetes (yes vs. no)	1.89	1.66, 1.80	1.90	1.78, 2.02	2.10	1.98, 2.24
SBP
Intercepte	1.35	1.33, 1.38	1.40	1.37, 1.43	1.42	1.40, 1.45
Slopef					1.02	0.98, 1.07
Total cholesterol
Intercept	1.19	1.16, 1.21	1.21	1.19, 1.24	1.26	1.23, 1.29
Slope					1.09	1.04, 1.15
HDL cholesterol
Intercept	0.85	0.83, 0.87	0.84	0.82, 0.86	0.85	0.83, 0.88
Slope					0.94	0.88, 1.00

Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; CVD, cardiovascular disease; HDL, high-density lipoprotein; HR, hazard ratio; SBP, systolic blood pressure; SD, standard deviation.

^a HRs from CVD risk models stratified by study and sex. Where appropriate, results were adjusted for baseline age, smoking status, history of diabetes, SBP, total cholesterol, and HDL cholesterol.

^b Model 1 used baseline measures of SBP, total cholesterol, and HDL cholesterol.

^c Model 2 used cumulative mean values of SBP, total cholesterol, and HDL cholesterol.

^d Model 3 used individual-level random intercepts and slopes for SBP, total cholesterol, and HDL cholesterol.

^e HRs for SBP, total cholesterol, and HDL cholesterol are given per SD increase. For model 3, these are the SD increases in the random intercept.

^f HRs for slopes are given per SD increase (using the SD of the random-effects slopes).