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. 2018 Mar 21;8:4921. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-22989-0

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© The Author(s) 2018

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Variation within the Samy models. Outbreak trajectories are shown in (a) for models 1 (red), 2 (blue), 3 (green), and 4 (black). Bolded lines are mean trajectories. Final average case totals are then mapped for model 4 (b), the main model we discuss in the text and use in other comparisons, as well as models 1 (c), 2 (d), and 3 (e). Maps were made in R 3.3.2⁶⁸ (https://www.R-project.org), using U.S. Census shapefiles.