Table 2.

Aggregating risk to the county scale can absorb some of the inherent spatial uncertainty of ecological niche modeling, but is itself an assumption that changes downstream impacts on the scale of outbreaks, as well as the scale of disagreement between models.

	Carlson	Partial	Messina	Partial	Samy	Partial
Counties Predicted	13	13	465	465	1616	1616
County Population at Risk	19,653,445	6,264,516	95,359,408	38,085,602	270,249,781	99,324,226
Mean Outbreak Size	12,871,005	4,195,326	63,622,367	25,897,671	181,290,371	66,345,567
Median Outbreak Size	14,552,250	4,262,636	64,038,273	26,307,445	181,732,629	66,850,610