Table 3.

Outbreak simulations exhibit greater than threefold variation in predictions among the four models presented in Samy.

	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4
Counties Predicted	338	2197	670	1616
County Population at Risk	91,174,791	296,007,551	148,700,587	270,249,781
Mean Outbreak Size	59,561,603	197,553,462	98,314,605	181,290,371
Median Outbreak Size	59,561,222	197,759,983	98,770,516	181,732,629