Table 2. Best-fitting values of the force of infection in Lao PDR before the 2011 SIA among participants aged < 15 and ≥ 15 years, obtained by the selected best-fitting model (model B) for different assumptions about the reduction in the force of infection after the SIA, and CRS incidence per 100,000 live births among women aged 15–44 years after weighting by the number of live births occurring among women in different maternal age groups.
| Assumed reduction in force of infection since 2011 | Force of infection per 1000 (susceptibles) before 2011 | Loglike-lihood deviance (degrees of freedom) | Weighted CRS incidence per 100,000 live births | Number of CRS cases in 2013 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <15 years old | ≥15 years old | Without vaccination | With vaccination | Without vaccination | With vaccination | Prevented | ||
| 0% | 79 (61,96) | 18 (8,29) | 61 (43) | 95 (37,178) | 85 (35,152) | 158 (62,297) | 142 (58,254) | 16 (0,50) |
| 25% | 79 (62,97) | 18 (8,29) | 61 (43) | 94 (37,175) | 69 (28,122) | 158 (62,293) | 116 (47,204) | 42 (11,92) |
| 50% | 80 (63,97) | 18 (8,30) | 61 (43) | 93 (37,172) | 53 (22,94) | 156 (61,288) | 89 (36,156) | 67 (21,136) |
| 75% | 80 (64,97) | 18 (8,29) | 61 (43) | 92 (36,170) | 37 (15,66) | 154 (61,285) | 62 (26,111) | 92 (32,180) |
| 100% | 81 (65,98) | 18 (8,29) | 61 (43) | 92 (36,168) | 21 (8,38) | 153 (61,280) | 35 (14,64) | 118 (43,224) |
Note. Confidence intervals were obtained by bootstrapping. Columns labelled “without vaccination” refer to estimated CRS incidence that might have occurred in 2013 if the SIA had not been implemented.