Table 1.
Model input random parameters used for the probabilistic uncertainty analysis
| Input | Median (95% CI)a | Distribution | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demography | Age at 1st dose (months) | 2.18 (1.42–5.11) | Dirichlet-multinomial | Vaccinoscopie®b |
| Delay before 2nd dose (months) | 1.10 (0.78–2.50) | Dirichlet-multinomial | Vaccinoscopie®b | |
| Age at 2nd dose (months) | 3.39 (2.54–6.48) | Empirical | Derived from 2 distributions above | |
| Compliance to 2nd dose | 0.92 (0.72–0.99) | Beta (14.43, 1.60) | ||
| Benefit | Baseline hospitalization rate due to RVGE/105 children/year | < 3 years: 604.0 (526.9–688.4) < 5 years: 380.7 (305.9–467.1) |
Gamma (216; 35711) Gamma (86; 22534) |
[62] |
| Mortality rate due to RVGE/106 children/year | < 3 years: 4.08 (1.94–7.42) < 5 years: 2.56 (1.17–4.92) |
Gamma (9; 2,125,000) Empirical |
[49, 62] | |
| RVGE fatality rate/105 hospitalizations | 67.5 (31.7–125.0) | Empirical | Derived from 2 distributions above | |
| Vaccine efficacy against RVGE D2 | 90% (81–95) | 1-lognormal (Ln(0.10); 0.341) | [51] | |
| Ratio of vaccine effectiveness against RVGE after a 1-dose vs 2-dose schedule | 0.85 (0.62–0.97) | Beta (13.6, 2.73) | [52, 53] | |
| Vaccine efficacy against RVGE D1 | 75% (55–88) | Empirical | Product of the 2 distributions above | |
| Risk | Baseline hospitalization rate due to IS/105 infants aged < 1 year/year | 40.85 (32.52–50.50) | Gamma (80; 195005) | [27] |
| Mortality rate due to IS/106 infants aged < 1 year/year | 0.597 (0.24–1.11) | Gamma (7; 11731635) | [58] | |
| IS fatality risk/105 IS hospitalizations | 139.17 (57.32–283.30) | Empirical | Derived from 2 distributions above | |
| Relative risk of IS D1 and D2 | D1: 5.39 (3.94–7.38) D2: 1.81 (1.32–2.48) |
Lognormal (Ln(5.39), 0.16) (Ln(1.81), 0.16) |
[30] |
CI credible interval, D1 post dose 1, D2 post dose 2, IS intussusception, RVGE rotavirus gastroenteritis, SD standard deviation
aThe limits of 95% CIs were determined using the 2.5 and 97.5% percentile of our simulations implemented and correspond as much as possible to the CI limits published in the source documents. Distribution parameters are beta (alpha; beta), gamma (shape; rate), and lognormal (mean; SD)
bVaccinoscopie® study (unpublished data; kindly see the Electronic Supplementary Material, Supplementary Figs. S2 and S3)