Table 2.
Subnational‐level estimates of HIV incidence and undiagnosed HIV prevalence in 2014 and time to diagnosis for individuals infected between 2011 and 2014 by sex, HIV exposure group and country of birth for four selected French regions
| Ile‐de‐France | Provence‐Alpes‐Côte d'Azur | Centre | Guyane | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pop. sizea (18 to 64 year) | IR (95% CI) | UP (95% CI) | Median TI (IQR) in years | Pop. sizea (18 to 64 year) | IR (95% CI) | UP (95% CI) | Median TI (IQR) in years | Pop. sizea (18 to 64 year) | IR (95% CI) | UP (95% CI) | Median TI (IQR) in years | Pop. sizea (18 to 64 year) | IR (95% CI) | UP (95% CI) | Median TI (IQR) in years | |
| MSM (all) | 93,178 (61,341 to 134,306) | 163.3 (104.1 to 226.0) | 373.4 (237.4 to 557.9) | 2.4 (0.5 to 4.7) | 43,515 (24,506 to 70,525) | 94.0 (49.7 to 145.0) | 213.9 (114.5 to 384.3) | 2.0 (0.4 to 4.3) | 7011 (3211 to 13,195) | 244.6 (98.0 to 447.1) | 600.1 (264.8 to 1132.9) | 2.8 (0.8 to 5.3) | xx | X | X | X |
| MSM born in France | 67,989 (44,759 to 98,000) | 151.2 (91.0 to 208.2) | 344.7 (211.1 to 547.2) | 2.2 (0.4 to 4.5) | 35,554 (20,023 to 57,623) | 102.1 (53.2 to 154.4) | 223.9 (118.3 to 386.5) | 1.9 (0.4 to 4.2) | 6304 (2887 to 11,863) | X | X | X | xx | X | X | X |
| Born‐abroad MSM | 25,188 (16,582 to 36,306) | 195.9b (120.7 to 285.3) | 450.7b (275.2 to 696.1) | 2.8b(1.0 to 5.0) | 7961 (4483 to 12,902) | 57.8b (7.3 to 116.2) | 169.4b (58.8 to 367.1) | 2.5b (0.7 to 4.8) | 707 (324 to 1331) | X | X | X | xx | X | X | X |
| Born‐abroad heterosexual women (all) | 1,080,951 (1,080,543 to 1,081,327) | 6.5 (5.3 to 7.7) | 22.7 (19.4 to 26.1) | 2.9 (1.2 to 4.9) | 280,313 (279,971 to 280,571) | 3.4 (1.3 to 6.2) | 9.1 (5.0 to 17.6) | 3.0 (1.2 to 5.1) | 78,027 (77,985 to 78,054) | 4.9 (1.6 to 9.4) | 23.4 (13.4 to 36.2) | 3.3 (1.6 to 5.1) | 32,794 | 23.9c (11.7 to 36.6) | 94.8c (65.5 to 132.1) | 3.0c (1.4 to 5.1) |
| Heterosexual women born in SSA | 212,146 (212,066 to 212,220) | 28.6 (22.7 to 33.5) | 98.2 (81.9 to 113.8) | 2.8 (1.2 to 4.8) | 26,169 (26,137 to 26,193) | X | X | X | 13,143 (13,136 to 13,147) | 27.0 (7.0 to 54.9) | 128.8 (71.9 to 215.1) | 3.3 (1.6 to 5.1) | 770 | X | X | X |
| Born‐abroad heterosexual men (all) | 963,350 (951,696 to 972,082) | 5.5 (3.7 to 7.3) | 26.3 (21.6 to 32.9) | 4.4 (2.3 to 6.6) | 248,176 (242,816 to 251,824) | 5.8 (1.7 to 10.3) | 16.5 (7.9 to 33.1) | 4.5 (2.3 to 6.8) | 73,644 (73,006 to 74,053) | X | X | X | 30,573 | 26.0c (8.4 to 47.7) | 109.4c (62.6 to 176.5) | 4.1c (2.0 to 6.5) |
| Heterosexual men born in SSA | 227,655 (224,901 to 229,719) | 19.6 (12.7 to 25.9) | 88.7 (71.3 to 108.4) | 4.2 (2.1 to 6.3) | 29,654 (29,013 to 30,090) | X | X | X | 15,118 (14,987 to 15,202) | X | X | X | 635 | X | X | X |
| Heterosexual women born in France | 2,795,141 (2,794,084 to 2,796,114) | 0.5 (0.3 to 0.7) | 1.7 (1.2 to 2.3) | 3.0 (1.0 to 5.4) | 1,207,109 (1,205,637 to 1,208,222) | 0.7 (0.3 to 1.4) | 1.5 (0.6 to 3.6) | 2.6 (0.9 to 4.5) | 674,966 (674,599 to 675,200) | X | X | X | 38,787 | X | X | X |
| Heterosexual men born in France | 2,600,331 (2,568,873 to 2,623,902) | 0.6 (0.3 to 1.0) | 2.7 (1.8 to 4.0) | 4.1 (1.4 to 6.6) | 1,108,378 (1,084,438 to 1,124,669) | 0.6 (0.2 to 1.4) | 2.7 (1.5 to 5.4) | 4.2 (1.8 to 6.7) | 656,254 (650,563 to 659,892) | X | X | X | 38,447 | X | X | X |
| PWIDc | 25,742 (20,723 to 30,602) | 17.9 (1.9 to 45.6) | 54.4 (21.0 to 131.5) | 4.0 (1.9 to 6.5) | 15,343 (10,229 to 21,242) | X | X | X | 2382 (1410 to 3581) | X | X | X | xx | X | X | X |
| Total men | 3,676,384 | 5.3 (4.4 to 6.0) | 19.5 (16.4 to 22.7) | 3.5 (1.2 to 5.8) | 1,411,695 | 3.3 (2.5 to 4.2) | 11.1 (8.8 to 13.8) | 3.0 (0.8 to 5.5) | 738,717 | 3.1 (2.0 to 4.1) | 8.9 (6.4 to 12.5) | 3.2 (1.1 to 5.9) | 69,020 | 19.6 (9.3 to 31.7) | 78.7 (51.1 to 116.3) | 4.3 (2.1 to 6.6) |
| Total women | 3,882,308 | 2.1 (1.7 to 2.5) | 7.6 (6.4 to 8.9) | 3.0 (1.3 to 5.1) | 1,491,138 | 1.1 (0.6 to 1.6) | 2.7 (1.7 to 3.9) | 2.7 (1.0 to 4.9) | 753,568 | 0.7 (0.2 to 1.2) | 3.1 (2.0 to 4.6) | 3.1 (1.2 to 5.1) | 71,581 | 14.1 (8.1 to 20.1) | 57.0 (42.4 to 76.6) | 3.2 (1.5 to 5.3) |
| Total | 7,558,692 | 3.7 (3.2 to 4.1) | 13.4 (11.8 to 15.1) | 3.3 (1.2 to 5.6) | 2,902,833 | 2.2 (1.7 to 2.7) | 6.8 (5.5 to 8.2) | 2.9 (0.8 to 5.4) | 1,492,285 | 1.9 (1.2 to 2.5) | 5.9 (4.5 to 7.9) | 3.2 (1.1 to 5.7) | 1,406,001 | 16.8 (10.1 to 24.0) | 65.6 (49.9 to 84.2) | 3.7 (1.8 to 6.0) |
MSM, men who have sex with men; PWID, persons who inject drugs; SSA, Sub‐Saharan Africa; CI, confidence interval; IQR, interquartile range; IR, HIV incidence rates (per 10,000 inhabitants aged 18 to 64); UP, undiagnosed HIV prevalence rates (per 10,000 inhabitants aged 18 to 64); TI, time interval from HIV infection to diagnosis for individuals infected between 2011 and 2014; X, values could not be estimated due to insufficient HIV cases; xx, the 2006 French national survey on sexual behaviour 30 and the 2014 survey on drug use 31 did not provide estimates of the sizes of the MSM and PWID populations in overseas regions.
Details on how population sizes were obtained and confidence intervals for the population size are given in Appendix S5 in SM.
For born‐abroad MSM, we did not produce estimates of incidence, time to diagnosis and undiagnosed prevalence according to the country of birth; however, it is interesting to note that among newly diagnosed HIV cases, in Ile‐de‐France, 29% of born‐abroad MSM were born in Haiti or in the Americas, 29% in North Africa or Asia or Oceania, 21% in Europe, and 20% in SSA, and in Provence‐Alpes‐Côte d'Azur 41% were born in Europe and 28% in North Africa or Asia or Oceania. #For PWID, estimate could not be produced according to the country of birth due to insufficient HIV cases.
In Guyane, for born‐abroad heterosexuals, we did not produce estimated of incidence, time to diagnosis and undiagnosed prevalence according to the country of birth; however, among heterosexuals, most born‐abroad newly diagnosed HIV cases were born in Haïti or in the Americas (84%).