Table 1.

Model validation results using the PLCO data for NLST criteria eligible subjects

	Chest X-ray Arm									Usual-Care Arm
	Screen-Detected Cases					Interval Detected Cases				Clinical Detected Cases
	Time	O	E	E/O ratio	95% CI	O	E	E/O ratio	95% CI	O	E	E/O ratio	95% CI
Lung Cancer Incidence	1	75	76	1.01	(0.81–1.27)	32	33	1.03	(0.74–1.46)	65	65	1	(0.78–1.27)
	2	38	40	1.05	(0.77–1.44)	43	39	0.91	(0.66–1.24)	83	80	0.96	(0.78–1.20)
	3	42	41	0.98	(0.73–1.34)	49	39	0.8	(0.58–1.08)	85	80	0.94	(0.76–1.18)
	4	44	42	0.95	(0.71–1.30)	54	43	0.8	(0.58–1.06)	91	85	0.93	(0.76–1.16)
	5	3	0			64	63	0.98	(0.77–1.26)	97	89	0.92	(0.74–1.13)
	6	0	0			71	73	1.03	(0.82–1.30)	97	91	0.94	(0.76–1.15)
	7	0	0			110	93	0.85	(0.69–1.03)	84	94	1.12	(0.91–1.36)
	8	0	0			92	97	1.05	(0.87–1.29)	102	99	0.97	(0.79–1.18)
	9	0	0			88	103	1.17	(0.96–1.42)	98	103	1.05	(0.87–1.28)
	10	0	0			90	102	1.13	(0.94–1.38)	84	103	1.23	(1.01–1.49)
	Total	202	200	0.99	(0.86–1.13)	693	684	0.987	(0.91–1.06)	886	889	1.03	(0.93–1.07)
Lung Cancer Mortality	1	8	3	0.38	(0.13–1.19)	6	5	0.83	(0.3–1.89)	15	8	0.53	(0.28–1.10)
	2	25	12	0.48	(0.27–0.84)	26	21	0.81	(0.54–1.25)	43	37	0.86	(0.62–1.18)
	3	19	18	0.95	(0.61–1.52)	42	27	0.64	(0.44–0.94)	58	52	0.9	(0.68–1.17)
	4	23	22	0.96	(0.63–1.46)	41	29	0.71	(0.50–1.03)	62	58	0.94	(0.73–1.22)
	5	21	20	0.95	(0.60–1.46)	34	38	1.12	(0.81–1.53)	78	63	0.81	(0.63–1.04)
	6	14	15	1.07	(0.67–1.81)	46	49	1.07	(0.81–1.41)	63	69	1.1	(0.86–1.38)
	7	8	13	1.62	(0.95–2.82)	55	57	1.04	(0.79–1.33)	75	72	0.96	(0.77–1.22)
	8	5	10	2	(1.01–3.6)	73	65	0.89	(0.70–1.14)	78	75	0.96	(0.76–1.20)
	9	2	7	3.5	(1.51–7.03)	85	71	0.84	(0.67–1.06)	79	78	0.99	(0.80–1.24)
	10	3	4	1.33	(0.54–3.65)	60	77	1.28	(1.02–1.60)	68	81	1.19	(0.96–1.48)
	Total	128	124	0.96	(0.81–1.15)	468	439	0.93	(0.85–1.03)	619	593	0.95	(0.88–1.03)