Table 3.
Average attributable fraction (AAF) of each baseline predictor for CV-death and nonCV-death, expressed as a percentage, across a 10-year follow-up period (N=4,018)a
| Baseline Predictor b | CV-Death c | NonCV-Death d |
|---|---|---|
| Average Attributable Fraction (95% CI) e | ||
| Spirometric restrictive-pattern f | 1.68 (0.46, 3.06) | 3.44 (1.97, 5.08) |
| Spirometric airflow-obstruction f | 2.35 (0.22, 4.72) | 7.77 (5.15, 10.60) |
| Age g | 20.33 (16.15, 24.83) | 26.32 (22.04, 30.81) |
| Male gender | 11.77 (7.28, 16.51) | 11.27 (6.63, 16.07) |
| Obesity (BMI ≥ 30) | −1.62 (−3.70, 0.55) | −0.33 (−2.46, 1.97) |
| Waist circumference h | 1.40 (−1.48, 4.23) | −0.23 (−3.06, 2.62) |
| Current smoker | 2.98 (1.22, 4.86) | 3.95 (2.03, 6.09) |
| ≥10 pack-years | 1.08 (−3.02, 5.08) | 6.46 (1.57, 11.26) |
| Hypertension i | 9.63 (5.56, 13.84) | 3.28 (−0.38, 7.10) |
| Dyslipidemia j | 1.33 (−2.00, 4.78) | −1.69 (−4.87, 1.54) |
| Diabetes mellitus k | 7.13 (4.78, 9.79) | 2.85 (0.88, 5.04) |
| Cardiovascular Disease l | 12.91 (9.55, 16.65) | 0.36 (−1.97, 2.79) |
| Cerebrovascular Disease m | 2.74 (1.43, 4.24) | 1.50 (0.39, 2.77) |
| Total for baseline predictors | 73.70 (67.33, 80.68) | 65.00 (58.33, 72.06) |
Abbreviation: BMI, body mass index (kg/m2); CI, confidence interval; CV, cardiovascular; GLI, Global Lung Function Initiative.
Of the analytical sample of 4,232 participants who completed spirometry, 214 (5.1%) had missing data on non-spirometric predictors.
Determined concurrently at the baseline visit.
Death from atherosclerotic coronary heart disease (includes heart failure), cerebrovascular disease (stroke), other atherosclerotic disease (such as aortic aneurysm), or other vascular disease (such as valvular heart disease or pulmonary embolism).
All other deaths that did not meet criteria for CV-death.
The fractional (percentage) contribution of each predictor to the respective outcome, based on estimates from pooled logistic regression models.
GLI-defined and calculated based on comparison with normal spirometry.
Age ≥75 vs. <75 years (CV-death is most prevalent in persons aged ≥75 years).
Waist circumference ≥110 cm in males and ≥95 cm in females was defined as high risk, based on prior work showing these thresholds as being associated with increased mortality.
Systolic ≥160 mm Hg, diastolic ≥95 mm Hg, or history of hypertension requiring antihypertensive medication.
Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥160 mg/dl or high-density lipoprotein cholesterol <40 mg/dl.
If taking insulin or oral hypoglycemic, or fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL.
Myocardial infarction, angina, heart failure, or claudication.
Stroke or transient ischemic attack.