Fig. 2.

Projected trends in high-mortality heatwaves ([a] frequency and [b] exposure) under different adaptation and climate scenarios. Each line connects three projections for an ensemble member, with points for projections for present-day (left) and for two scenarios of greenhouse gas forcing (RCP4.5 [middle] and RCP8.5 [right]). “Frequency” (a) indicates total number of high-mortality heatwaves projected for all 82 study communities. “Exposure” (b) indicates total expected exposure across all 82 communities in millions of person-days per year. Color corresponds to the adaptation assumption: none (red), lagged (green), or on-pace (blue). All projections are based on the bagging health-based model, and all projections for (a) are based on the SSP3 population projection